Page 2 of 2 Space is suddenly on the agenda
By Peter J Brown
"The Obama administration came into office promising to cool the rhetoric and
work through multilateral institutions to oppose various agreements that would
prevent the militarization of space - space supremacy was out, space
partnerships are in. Except the ChiComs [Chinese communists] are actually
serious about global hegemony, and they aim to dominate and militarize space
regardless of any 'strategic reassurance' (aka appeasement) pursued by this
administration," wrote Michael Goldfarb, editor of conservative blog site The
Weekly Standard.
The Obama administration has reportedly deleted "strategic reassurance" from
its vocabulary and no mention of it will be made in Beijing. What this means in
terms of any ongoing negotiations is unclear, especially since, according to
Hagt, the
Chinese find themselves in a better position to negotiate due to their
advancing space program and previous successful tests.
"Negotiations over ASATs or space weapons will raise the stakes for China
strategically, and increase transparency, but China's military build up is an
inevitability as I see it," said Hagt. "As for coming to agreement, an
understanding in the form of an unofficial moratorium on further debris -
creating ASAT tests is already understood between the US and China. There is no
formal agreement here, but the strategic signaling between the two and likely
behind-the-scenes military-to-military talks makes this highly likely. An
official agreement however, is a long way off."
Hagt describes the US as being on the defensive in terms of the broader
diplomatic framework and a joint Chinese and Russian proposal involving a ban
on space weaponization.
"It is an unbalanced starting point, but it is a starting point. The ball is
now in the US's court and the US will have to make the next move with its own
draft treaty," said Hagt. "The most likely is something that stops debris -
creating ASAT tests, but in exchange China is going to want a wider ban on all
ASAT technologies, since the US dominates in non-kinetic ASAT capabilities."
Last week, in a column for Forbes magazine entitled, "The Space Arms Race
Begins," Gordon Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China, wrote
that the "Chinese want to dominate space. General Xu did the United States a
favor by removing any doubt about where his country stands. Whether we like it
or not, there is now a brutal competition between the United States and China
to control the high ground of space." [4]
Obama also seems reluctant to express any concerns about a large faction inside
the PLA, and inside other branches of the Chinese government as a whole, which
supports a more confrontational, anti-US stance.
"There are certainly hawkish elements in China that will balk at any ban on
space weapons or ASATs or any accommodation with the US. And the statement
could very well be a public reaction to growing pressure for US - China
discussions on space weaponization and nuclear disarmament," said Hagt. "But,
that is not the unified voice of the PLA and furthermore, disarmament
discussions go beyond PLA concerns and involve huge stakes for the US-China
relations calculus, international prestige and image."
Perhaps if Xu did not command the PLA Air Force, his remarks would have slipped
by unnoticed. However, as the Obama administration shows signs of slowly
warming to the idea that joint manned spaceflight activities involving the US
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the China National
Space Administration (CNSA) might be well worth pursuing, Xu has undermined
this effort. Xu is highlighting the role of the PLA in space, and in the
process, leaving many with the impression that despite any claims to the
contrary, the PLA is in complete control of China's space program.
"It is highly likely that Xu's statement will be added to a long list of
'indicators' that the US must aggressively move to cross the Rubicon into
development and deployment of space weapons, regularly cited by ASAT and BMD
supporters," said Johnson-Freese. "The Obama administration has been much more
open to the possibility of cooperation with China in space - potentially even
including human spaceflight opportunities - than the [George W] Bush
administration. Certainly Xu's comments will complicate any discussions in that
regard."
Chang, among others, is warning the US not to pursue these ties in space with
China for several reasons.
"There is no such thing as a civilian space program in China. The [CNSA] is
really a military operation. Therefore, we have to ask ourselves a question:
Should we transfer technology to a potential adversary so that it can improve
its war-fighting capabilities?" wrote Chang.
If little else, Obama's critics will be watching closely to see how Obama
proceeds once a more detailed clarification is provided by China. Thus, Xu has
handed Obama's critics perhaps another opportunity to portray Obama as
vulnerable and to gain round at Obama's expense.
"'Only power can protect peace', the 59-year-old commander said. The man is
right, but no one believes that the Chinese are accruing this power for the
sake of peace. The question is, what will the Obama administration do to make
sure that it is we, and not the Red Chinese, who win the race to dominate
space?" wrote Goldfarb.
Whether Obama will feel compelled to demonstrate any heightened sense of
concern over Xu's remarks or whether Obama will simply overlook them - deeming
them in effect as a mere distraction - remains to be seen.
One thing is certain. US conservatives are lining up to label Obama as too soft
on China, and they see something in motion here that betters their chances of
sending him on another trip - this time back to Chicago after the next
presidential election.
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