Page 2 of 2 China struggles for space entrepreneurs
By Peter J Brown
One former NASA employee recently blamed NASA for not only placing too much
emphasis on its enormous public relations campaign aimed at members of Congress
and their constituents, but also for not adequately keeping track of the huge
sums of money it spends. He even accused the US National Academy of Sciences of
dropping the ball entirely and failing to conduct a thorough annual review of
NASA. Such criticism registers with the American public especially at a time
when the US government is on the verge of a fiscal meltdown, and, while all
over the country, school teachers are losing their jobs and school programs of
all descriptions are being eliminated.
China is facing no shortage of funds as it sits and watches these
various twists and turns in this latest chapter in NASA's history. CNSA has
money to spare. China's manned space program as it is currently structured
looks remarkably sound. China can simply proceed with its current realistically
balanced timetable for manned spaceflight, while allowing for occasional
outbursts in the form of enthusiastic statements from various Chinese officials
who eagerly suggest that things might happen sooner than people expect.
When the Chinese Society of Space Research held its annual meeting in Dalian
late last month, China let everyone know that China's future in space hinges on
a new generation of much bigger rockets.
Gu Yidong, the former head of China's manned space program, also told attendees
that China's space station is still on track for its eventual deployment around
2020, following on the heels of the deployment of a few Chinese space
laboratories.
However, he also reminded everyone that China has to complete a series of
docking tests in space starting in less than two years. Even as plans for these
vital tests move ahead, he said, China must simultaneously complete work on its
new Wenchang launch facility on Hainan Island - the future home of the Long
March 5, China's new very large launch vehicle.
Still scheduled to enter service in 2014 - just when work on Wenchang is
scheduled for completion - the total lift capacity of the Long March 5, as
recently described by Liang Xiaohong, vice president of the China Academy of
Launch Vehicle Technology, will be second only to the Boeing Delta 4 in the
world's rocket fleet.
China is focused on its Tiangong-1 unmanned space module as well. It is
supposed to be launched by the end of 2010 or perhaps early 2011. It will serve
as the base of operations in space for the above-mentioned docking maneuvers
and tests, among other things, involving China's unmanned and manned Shenzhou
VIII, Shenzhou IX and Shenzhou X spacecraft starting in 2011.
Consistency and confidence-building is the name of the game in Beijing's space
circles right now. China can interpret the Commission report as a budget-driven
game changer that undermines everything that the US has been planning for the
past decade, or China can ignore all the background chatter for now and let the
dust settle - not a bad idea.
After all, China's space program is comfortably spending untold billions on its
space projects - maybe at levels quite higher than the officially released
budgetary figures. But whether China believes it or not, the lingering
dependence of China's space endeavors on such a highly centralized
organizational structure may lead to problems and the creation of China's own
Review Committee in the not too distant future. It all comes down to changes in
the workforce as well as shifts in emphasis and the way in which programs play
out.
Just 60 days ago or so, for example, the latest update of the "NASA Workforce
Transition Strategy" stated clearly that "NASA has postponed further lunar
contract activities pending the review of the (Review Committee). NASA is
evaluating the workforce impact of this pause in lunar development work,
including the effect any changes may have on the Agency’s plans to transition a
significant portion of the Space Shuttle workforce to lunar development
activities."
The fact that Cook has since left NASA is not to be overlooked, but the Review
Committee's recommendation that NASA hand over the majority and perhaps all of
its ISS-related and low earth orbit missions to the private sector is far more
significant. This leaves a large block of NASA's workforce - the lunar and
low-earth crowd - somewhat in limbo, as they also try to figure out what Cook
might have seen that they did not. In other words, do they undertake the
transition, or do they wait for NASA to do the transitioning.
It will be up to President Obama to decide if the US returns to the moon based
on the current plan - the US Congress approved over $7 Billion in development
costs already - or if NASA should embrace some other option.
One former NASA astronaut who is now a vice president at the US company which
is developing rocket motors for the Ares 1 launch vehicle, Charlie Precourt,
recently reminded the National Space Club that, "for the first time in NASA
history, we are designing a vehicle that is smaller".
The implications of his statement are enormous. While some might dismiss this
as nothing more than a comment by a NASA contractor who may or may not have an
Ares card to play over the coming months, and others might say that the Orion
space capsule still has to fit on top of it, this is much more than simply
another important indicator of the shifting landscape in space. This is not
business as usual.
China can adapt to this new set of circumstances, but Europe, and especially
the Germans as well as Japan and India on a more limited scale may adapt more
quickly.
Russia, in the meantime, is about to start work on its new Vostochny launch
facility, while launches from the Kourou space center in French Guiana aboard
Russia's Soyuz-ST carrier rockets will commence next April. Russia is really
under no pressure whatsoever to do anything differently given its remarkable
track record. China and the US may find themselves becoming more rather than
less dependent on Russia's very reliable fleet of launch vehicles in the next
decade.
NASA will simply move ahead in the coming years, no matter which road President
Obama decides to take.
Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from the US state of Maine.
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