Page 2 of 2 China threat? It's a blessing
By Francesco Sisci
multilateral institutions for the purpose and each country too weak to deal
with China on a bilateral basis.
America then is good for China and other Asian countries. But the opposite
holds true: China's rise is good for the American presence in Asia. After the
collapse of the Soviet empire in 1991, the US should have pulled out or greatly
reduced its presence in Asia.
Without China's ebullient economic and political development, America would
have far less cause to maintain a presence in Asia. Asian countries could more
easily manage their affairs by themselves, and the US government and businesses
would have less reason to be involved on the continent. China's "threat" then
is a blessing for all countries involved; it can be seen as the reason for the
peaceful development of the Asia-Pacific region.
This blessing, however, hinges on a delicate balance: a carefully managed
distance between China, the US and the other Asian countries. Any imbalance
between any two countries could cast a shadow over the entire regional
equilibrium. It is not unlike the challenge of keeping the peace in Europe
after the Franco-Prussian war in 1870, but on a much larger scale. Then add
several active nuclear states, several failing states, growing religious
fundamentalism, nationalistic movements, exploding wealth, mounting social
inequality, rising criminality, etc.
In this situation, a thriving China could be the best possible scenario.
However, it is an extremely volatile state of affairs, made all the more so
because of China's continuing growth, and this environment cannot last forever.
Therefore, China has to take a more active role in the strategic security of
the region by actively building a new culture of political relations in Asia
and fostering new ties in the region.
Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's April 11-13 visit to Japan set a new tone
for relations with the most sensitive and powerful of China's neighbors. Wen
stressed that friendly relations had existed between China and Japan for 2,000
years, and said there had been problems between the two countries only in the
past 50 years.
Whether or not this is historically accurate, it is politically momentous. The
speech was broadcast live in China, so that the Chinese public could take note
of the new official line and learn that anti-Japanese chauvinism is no longer
tolerated in Beijing. Japanese parliamentarians applauded, demonstrating
Japanese domestic endorsement for the new line of appeasement between the
neighbors. Any potential future rightwing Japanese governments, looking to whip
up nationalistic sentiments against China, will have to contend with the
parliamentarians who applauded Wen's speech.
Roadblocks along the way
Though the trip was saluted as a melting of the ice, we are far from a
political spring, let alone a torrid summer, in Sino-Japanese relations. China
is making an extra effort in improving relations with all its neighbors, but it
will take time to reap significant results. In the meantime, many incidents
might upset the intended peaceful course of events.
In a related development, the growing cooperation between China, the US and
Japan on North Korea could become a cornerstone of Asian security. Even if the
talks fail to scale back North Korean nuclear capabilities, they will have
achieved the total political isolation of Pyongyang's regime and begun building
confidence on crucial security issues in Asia. This confidence is a strategic
capital that can be called on by the three main countries in discussions over
other sensitive areas.
It is likely that North Korea will freeze its nuclear development program and
will reconsider opening an overland route through the Korean Peninsula to China
and then to Russia. In Washington, ambassador Joseph DeTrani, one of the
architects of the talks, is confident North Korea can be reined in, and the
regime's almost hysterical reaction to the freezing of its assets in Macau in
2006 has proved there is concrete leverage to exert.
These events will have consequences throughout the world.
The growth of China and the Pacific region, and the United States' political
involvement therein, increasingly renders the European Union superfluous.
Political and economic growth is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, while
the EU flounders on the periphery. Europeans will need to assess, in light of
their geopolitical marginalization, whether the union really serves their
interests, or whether they would be better off as separate states.
In time, perhaps 20 to 30 years, a best possible scenario could emerge: China
has managed to develop a new approach of regional ties without vassalage, and
Asian affairs are more integrated, both politically and economically. Even
then, it is hard to imagine that the US will be totally out of the picture.
However, it may have eased the cordon around China, scaling down its military
presence in the area, and it may have developed better relations with China,
thanks to the integration of Taiwan into a greater China.
Thanks to the due revaluation of the yuan, China may well be the largest
economy, but the US will still possess the most sophisticated military in the
world. Furthermore, because of its complicated geopolitical situation, it is
difficult to imagine that China could greatly build up its military without
suffering regional blowback. This would void what would by then be decades of
efforts at political easement.
Meanwhile, as America's political capital in Asia is rising, that same
political capital is being squandered in Iraq and Afghanistan. Here the
lingering conflict and the constant bleeding of the pro-American forces in the
long term could waste even the political capital America needs in East Asia.
An analysis written by Wang Xiangsui [1] highlights this concern. In "Key
Points of Chinese National Security Strategy" [2] he explains that China
worries about "power politics as the root threat to world peace and stability".
He argues that the US wants to use weapons and military tactics to fight
terrorism, while China wants to advance economical and social development "to
eliminate the soil for terrorism". The US is worried about "failed or
autocratic states"; China wants to develop Asian security agreements between
countries to oppose terrorism.
Wang is worried that in so doing the US will fail to restrain terrorism. This
defeat will lead to the spread of terrorism while weakening American political
capital. China would have nothing to gain in this process. Islamic terrorism
threatens China as well and a massive weakening of America could awaken
thousands of ghosts throughout Asia, with each nation attending more closely to
its security and a resulting arms race and loss of economic growth throughout
the region.
So, while treading deftly on a new path of political relations with Asian
countries, China and others states must pay special attention to developments
in the Middle East. If America does not make major progress there in the next
year, then perhaps a new Saddam Hussein - kept on a shorter leash - will be
brought in to salvage the situation.
Yet, if the fight against Saddam were to result in bringing in a new Saddam,
then the US should perhaps review its quasi-ideological fear of "autocratic
regimes". This is already happening. The Arab world is full of autocrats who
rule their countries by oppressing their people with America's blessing. But
the US's blatant abandonment of former democratic ideals could further convince
Islamic terrorists that the US's interests in the Middle East have only to do
with oil. This, and the oppressive behavior of the region's US-sponsored
dictators, could in turn boost anti-American sentiments.
If, in the Middle East, America remains caught between the Scylla of the
autocrats and the Charybdis of the terrorists, Asian countries could soon start
thinking of new security arrangements without America. This is a path fraught
with risks for all involved: for the US, for China and for the whole of Asia.
Notes
1. Retired senior colonel, co-author with Qiao Liang of Chao Xian Zhan (War
Beyond Limits).
2. ISPI papers, December 2006.
Francesco Sisci, Asia Editor of La Stampa.
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