SPEAKING FREELY A US-China arms race on the final frontier By Malou Innocent
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To protect the US from Iranian and North Korean missiles, it has proposed the
installation of a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. In
response, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a scathing denunciation of US
hegemony, fearing the shield would stoke an "inevitable arms race".
While some have pooh-poohed Putin's admonition, claiming high oil profits must
have gone to his head, the United States may want to heed this "arms race"
warning, for if a new arms race does not transpire today between Washington and
Moscow, it
may transpire tomorrow between Washington and Beijing.
Reacting to Putin's charge, US Secretary of Defense Robert M Gates assured the
world that "one Cold War is enough". But Russia is not the only great power the
US must worry about. China opposes all theater and national missile defense
(NMD) programs. As far back as 2001, China's United Nations envoy for
disarmament affairs, Hu Xiaodi, argued that NMD "is, in essence, a disguised
form of unilateral nuclear-arms expansion, which will severely hinder the
international arms-control and disarmament process and even trigger off a new
round of arms race".
And former Chinese president Jiang Zemin affirmed, "Any attempt to break the
existing international strategic balance by developing sophisticated weapons
systems cannot but spark new rounds of an arms race and jeopardize world
peace." China's disapproval was justified, since an ability to intercept
ballistic missiles would deprive it of its nuclear retaliatory capability.
Chinese officials have openly voiced opposition to US machinations in the past.
But recently, they have grown noticeably more restrained. In fact, not one
high-level Chinese official has spoken out against America's recent plan to use
Eastern Europe as an anti-ballistic-missile base. Is China simply allowing
Russia to speak on its behalf? Why have the Chinese shifted from strident
opposition to muted acquiescence? One reason may be their desire to dodge US
criticism of their own expanding military.
On January 11, China successfully destroyed one of its orbiting weather
satellites using ground-based medium-range ballistic missiles. While the launch
drew sharp criticism from various nations that wished they had simply been
consulted prior to the test, US opposition was based on the principle of its
own primacy. Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for the National Security Council,
argued that China's test was "inconsistent with the spirit of cooperation".
This statement was inspired by the White House's own National Space Policy,
which declared that the US should have unimpeded supremacy in space, and will
undermine other great powers from usurping this freedom. Not surprisingly,
Chinese Major-General Peng Guangqian said the US was making too big a deal out
of the test.
But a "big deal" may be warranted. China's defense industry has developed in
large part thanks to the country's space program. With regards to military
technology, space programs go beyond simple aeronautics and computer-simulation
models. They enable countries to develop wind-tunnel and jet-propulsion test
facilities that are crucial to weapons development, including destroyers, other
ships, and fighter aircraft.
In fact, many of America's own military and engineering innovations were born
out of its space industry. Because China's aerospace program has military
applications, and the US already has numerous reconnaissance satellites, a
future US-China arms race in the final frontier could be more plausible than
not.
But just as tensions from the missile test were dissipating, a spokesman for
the National People's Congress announced this month that China will boost its
defense spending by 17.8%, bringing total spending to US$44.94 billion for
fiscal 2007. While the real spending figure is in dispute, because of
inadequate accounting measures and intentional obfuscation, US military experts
agree that China's double-digit increases over the past decade support the
likelihood of a future arms race between great powers.
US government officials, preoccupied with conflicts and force requirements in
other theaters, are finally growing more concerned about China's strategic
ambitions and whether or not those ambitions will depreciate America's global
power. The United States may want to use its Cold War history as a frame of
reference, drawing useful lessons for its encounter with the rise of the next
up-and-coming superpower.
Summing up, the way in which the United States chooses to respond to China's
rise will have profound implications on the path China takes: whether it
decides to be a strategic competitor or a stable strategic partner.
While Defense Secretary Gates is correct in stating that "one Cold War is
enough", America's actions, not its words, will matter more to the Chinese.
Consequently, if a missile-defense system in Eastern Europe continues as
planned, the US may be stepping toward the threshold of a new cold war with a
brand-new enemy.
Malou Innocent is a defense and foreign policy research assistant based
in Washington, DC.
(Copyright 2007 Malou Innocent.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say.
Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
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