'Iron Ladies' resurface in Hong
Kong By Todd Crowell
HUA HIN, Thailand - After three years of
self-imposed exile in the United States, one of
Hong Kong's most controversial political figures
has returned to the territory as a born-again
democrat. Politics in the former British colony
may never be the same.
Three years ago,
Regina Ip was one of the most reviled figures
throughout the territory. She had made herself a
political lightening rod as the leading proponent
of a national security bill that many in the
territory worried would curb their freedoms in an
autonomous region of China.
More than half
a million people turned out to protest against the
anti-sedition law on July 1, 2003, the sixth
anniversary of the handover to China. Former chief
executive Tung Chee-hwa
withdrew the bill. Ip
resigned as secretary of security and left the
territory.
She spent those years in
California earning a master's degree in political
science at the Center for East Asian Studies at
Stanford University. Her thesis? What else: Hong
Kong governance and democracy.
The woman
who had once disparaged democracy by saying,
"Hitler was elected through universal suffrage,
and he killed seven [sic] million Jews," now tells
the world that "the only way forward [for Hong
Kong] is "complete democratization".
But
Ip isn't the only "Iron Lady" roiling the
political waters. In the days preceding the recent
July 1 holiday - which is meant to celebrate the
glorious liberation of Hong Kong from colonial
rule - former chief secretary Anson Chan was all
over the airwaves urging people to hit the
streets.
As a consequence, the turnout,
with an estimated 58,000 pro-democracy
demonstrators, was more than double that of the
preceding year. Chan took a prominent place in the
march, flanked by family members and a ring of
supporters who joined hands to form a protective
ring around her.
Chan was the first
Chinese and first woman appointed to the post of
chief secretary, the highest position in the civil
service, just below the governor, or since 1997,
the chief executive.
She was appointed by
the last British governor, Chris Patten, and hated
by Beijing - partly for that reason she is
profoundly distrusted by Chinese authorities. But
she is popular with Hong Kong people. In the days
preceding the handover, she was, by far, the most
popular choice to become Hong Kong's first Chinese
governor.
Since she resigned the
government in 2001, Chan had maintained a fairly
low profile. She did not take part in the epic
pro-democracy march in July 2003 or the equally
well-attended July 1 march in 2004.
But
she emerged as a critic of the administration late
last year when the legislature rejected a modest
series of constitutional reforms because they did
not go far enough toward "universal suffrage", a
term that in Hong Kong means choosing the chief
executive and all of the Legislative Council
(Legco) by popular vote.
Currently, the
chief is chosen by an 800-member electoral
college; half the Legco through narrow-interest
"functional constituencies".
Political
watchers in Hong Kong have been transfixed in
recent weeks by the sudden emergence of not one
but two new political figures. The two Iron Ladies
have reinvigorated the democratic movement in Hong
Kong, which has been languishing rudderless for
months. On everyone's lips: what are they up to?
Much speculation surrounds the question
whether Chan might challenge Chief Executive
Donald Tsang when he finishes the term of his
predecessor in 2007. This seems like a quixotic
quest, since the selection committee that chooses
the chief is dominated by pro-Beijing appointees.
It is not by any means certain that Chan
could best Tsang in a straight election. Unlike
the hapless Tung, Tsang is popular in his own
right. His failure to enact some modest democratic
reforms late last year did nothing to dampen that
popularity. People think his heart is in the right
place.
Chan is keeping her cards close to
her chest. She shrugs off the inevitable questions
by saying she wants to "see one step, take one
step", depending on how things develop. However,
it is said she has been making overtures to Emily
Lau, leader of the Frontier Party, a liberal
group.
"Anson's maneuvers have created
controversy, divisions and tensions even within
the democratic camp," long-time Hong Kong
political observer Tom Polin said. "Many don't
know what to make of her intentions and are not a
little jealous, or worried, about her ability to
steal their thunder as leaders of the movement."
For her part, Ip has been back in the
territory for only about two weeks, and so her
plans are even less clear, even though she is
putting out strong signals that she wants to get
involved in the political process. She has
indicated she might form a new political party.
Ip seems to have had an epiphany of sorts
in her three years of study at Stanford, under the
tutelage of Professor Larry Diamond, a well-known
American political scientist. Sections of her
thesis, "Hong Kong. A Case Study in Democratic
Development and Transitional Society" have been
excerpted in Hong Kong newspapers.
Much of
the thesis concerns some fairly arcane points of
governance, advocating major structural changes,
especially in the dysfunctional relationship
between the executive and the legislature. But she
suggests clearly that "there is no reason why
direct elections to the fifth term of the
legislature not be held in 2012".
Two
years ago, the Standing Committee of China's
National People's Congress had ruled out any
chance of full democracy either for the chief
executive or the legislature during the 2007-2008
elections cycles. The next logical moment to
introduce democracy would be in 2012.
The
two former top civil servants were not on very
close terms when they were in the government and,
"the currents of rivalry between them are already
palpable", Polin said.
Ip did not
participate in the July 1 pro-democracy march. It
may be that she didn't want to be overshadowed by
Chan. Or it may simply be that she had only
returned to Hong Kong two days previously.
Either candidate could, if she chose to
run, make a realistic challenge to Tsang. Chan has
the popularity, but Ip might make it a more
interesting race - a moderate and perhaps a more
Beijing-acceptable candidate who might garner the
most support from surprising quarters.
Todd Crowell is an Asia Times
Online correspondent based in Thailand.
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