TOKYO - Over the past decade China has been
expanding and enhancing its maritime forces to make them
blue-water capable. A major focus is submarines, the
Chinese Dragon U-boat. An obvious inference is the use
of subs in the narrow, shallow Taiwan Strait in a
possible conflict with "renegade" Taiwan, but military
analysts say submarines are virtually obsolete and would
easily be killed by ships and planes in the
strait.
Still, the submarine, that sleek
high-tech military platform, is an important symbol of
prestige for both China and Taiwan, where the
Legislative Yuan is battling over the military budget.
Both Beijing and Taiwan are acquiring the vessels,
despite what may be the futility of their deployment in
a conflict.
A Chinese appraisal of future naval
warfare in 2001, translated by the Foreign Broadcasting
International Service of the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA), concludes that "the prospect for using submarines
is good, because of their covertness and power.
Submarines are menaces existing anywhere, at any time."
In the same report, another Chinese analyst affirmed
that "submarines are the maritime weapons posing the
greatest threat to an aircraft carrier formation.
Submarines are also our navy's core
force."
According to US
and Taiwan intelligence estimates, China has about 70
submarines (virtually all conventional), it is building more and
buying more from Russia. It has one nuclear submarine,
two more being built and eight Kilo-class diesels on
order from Russia, to be delivered in 2005 (Russian
sources) or 2007 (Chinese sources). David Shambaugh, a
leading military analyst at George Washington
University, confirms at least 70 submarines, basing his
figure on the authoritative International Institute for
Strategic Studies on military balance for his article in
the Washington Quarterly in 2002.
According to
Sid Trevethan, an Alaska-based specialist on the Chinese
military, Beijing has deployed 57 submarines, including
one Xia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine, five
Han-class sub, four Kilo-class subs, seven Songs, 18
Mings, and and 22 Soviet-designed Romeos.
Writing in the Spring 2004 issue of the journal
International Security, Lyle Goldstein and William
Murray affirmed: "Contrary to Western forecasts, China's
confidence in imported Kilos has not halted domestic
production of the new Song-class diesel submarine. In
addition, China's nuclear propulsion program will soon
field the first of its second-generation vessels, which
will include both attack submarines and strategic
missile boats. Finally, the People's Liberation Army
Navy (PLAN) is undertaking an overhaul of the submarine
force's weaponry, training, recruitment, and
doctrine."
The conservative Washington Times
reported in July that to the surprise of US observers,
China had built new Yuan-class diesel submarines that
combine Russian technology and Chinese
engineering.
Indeed, China is only in the middle
of extending the size and range of its submarine fleet,
while acquiring modern weapons to transform its fleet
from a coastal defense navy to a force capable of
sustained open-ocean operations.
These
developments have increased the security concerns of
Japan, Taiwan and the United States.
After all,
even if China took at least two decades to achieve
open-ocean operations, Beijing has the option to develop
some midget submarines that would tap into underwater
communication lines or get up close to a coastline to
land its special forces.
"It is always a
threat," said William Taylor, a retired Army colonel who
was director of national-security studies at the US
Military Academy. In a study on Chinese submarines,
co-authored with Lyle Goldstein in the Spring 2004 issue
of International Security, he said, "The subs can put
special operations teams in place, they can target
aircraft carriers, locate other targets, and with the
Chinese nuclear [weapons] capability, there are
different threat categories altogether."
Nor is
there a limit to what China wants to achieve with its
submarine forces. In addition to its one nuclear-powered
submarine, which has been ridden with troubles that
confine it to the port, China is building two new
U-boats.
China's
Type-093 sub is believed to be based on the
Russian Victor-III class, while the Pentagon
believes that its Type-094 attack submarine with a
finished hull will be ready for deployment in 2005.
Regardless of type or form, however, most
military analysts agree that Chinese submarines could
create serious trouble during a regional conflict,
either by menacing sea lanes or by forcing US aircraft
carriers to stay further away from targets for fear of
being torpedoed.
In this context, the US, Taiwan
and Japan have begun to take China's submarine forces
seriously, especially given Beijing's option to ally its
maritime efforts with North Korea, another country with
a massive, though archaic, and still deadly submarine
fleet mostly inherited from World War II.
A
Pentagon report published in May stated that China is
changing from a coastal defense force to one employing
"active offshore defense".
"This change in
operations requires newer, more modern warships and
submarines capable of operating at greater distances
from China's coast for longer periods," the report said,
noting that submarine construction is a top priority.
Indeed, over the last two months, the US Navy
has begun conducting tests in the Sea of Japan, as well
as similar trials off Hawaii, to test the prototype of a
detection device that analyzes submarines' underwater
color patterns and detects color gradations too faint
for the human eye to detect.
Early versions of
the device called the Littoral Airborne Sensor
Hyperspectral, or LASH, have spotted whales and
submarines below the surface. Current detection methods
used by the US Navy rely on sonar and other methods to
"hear" the location of enemy submarines. The LASH system
is designed to permit the Navy to "see" the submarines.
Japan is wary of China's efforts and has fully
supported such detection exercises, since Chinese
submarines have been spotted off the coast of Japan with
increased frequency. Indeed, China has even begun to
conduct resource surveys in the vicinity of
Okino-Torishima, 1,700 kilometers south of Tokyo.
The Chinese survey activities have been
undertaken within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
in violation of the Law of the Sea, according to the
Maritime Safety Agency of Japan. China, however, has
insisted that Okino-Torishima should not be considered
an island, but a cluster of rocks not qualified for EEZ
status, as stipulated by the Law of the Sea.
While these submarines, Tokyo military experts
believe, do not have any offensive intention in the
immediate or short term, they are nonetheless positioned
to increase China's intelligence-gathering activities
and to explore the opportunity to block US naval forces
in the event of a Taiwan conflict. China has the nasty
habit of surfacing its submarine fleets off the coast of
the Sea of Japan, as in November 2003, 25 miles
offshore.
Taiwan also is taking the Chinese
submarine threat seriously. Taiwan is severely
disadvantaged, although the Taiwan Strait is narrow and
relatively shallow because of the continental shelf,
making it difficult for submarines to operate and hide.
According to Shambaugh, the China military
analyst, Taiwan's two antiquated World War II-vintage
(Guppy class), and two Dutch-built Zvaardis diesel
submarines are no match for China's 70 submarines, were
a conflict to break out.
Indeed, Taiwan's
airborne anti-submarine warfare capability also remains
limited, this despite the fact that the shallow Taiwan
Strait actually gives Taiwan the military
advantage.Taiwan is taking steps to strengthen its
submarine forces accordingly. To begin with, the Taiwan
navy has signed a submarine-rescue agreement with the
US. According to Chinese-language news reports, the
agreement states that the US is required to send a deep
submergence rescue vehicle (DSRV) to Taiwan in the
shortest time possible if any of Taiwan's four
submarines become disabled.
That China
is improving its submarine and naval capability has
clearly made Taiwan wary. In October 2003, the Taiwan
parliament was informed that a Chinese destroyer from the North
Sea fleet had, for the first time, sailed through the
waters east of Taiwan to join exercises in the South China
Sea. "This has never happened before," said Defense
Minister Tang Yao-Ming. President Chen Shui-bian repeatedly has
urged Taiwan to improve its naval combat readiness.
Chen did not go into details about Taiwan's own
naval buildup, but its highlights include the purchase
of four US second-hand Kidd-class destroyers and eight
conventional submarines. US President George W Bush in
April 2001 approved the sale of eight diesel-electric
submarines as part of Washington's most comprehensive
arms package to Taipei since 1992.
The
multibillion-dollar arms package, including submarines, has
generated a fierce debate in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan,
or parliament.
Although the chances are slim
that China and Taiwan would return to the heyday of
Cold War submarine warfare, when submarines pursued one
another under the sea, the exponential expansion of
Chinese submarine forces clearly has not been taken
lightly.
Phar Kim Beng is a regular
contributor to Asia Times Online. He is currently on a
Sumitomo Foundation fellowship, where he is studying the
state of Japanese social sciences. He was trained in
international relations and strategic studies, first at
Cambridge University, later the Fletcher School and
Harvard University.
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