COMMENT US, Taiwan military
exercises ominous signals By Tang
Leijun
QINGDAO, China - Recently a series of
large-scale military maneuvers have been conducted by
mainland China and Taiwan and are being conducted the
United States in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait.
These activities have occurred at roughly the same time,
and the size of maneuvers by the US side is especially
noticeable.
Massive US military exercises are
taking place worldwide, including the Western Pacific.
At most there will be two carrier battle groups near the
Taiwan Strait at some time. China's and Taiwan's
military maneuvers have been concluded.
The
political purposes of these exercises by the three
parties are different but clear: mainland China wants to
show in its exercises that it is determined to stop
Taiwan from gaining independence, even if force is
required, even with strong military resistance from
Taiwan and military intervention from the US. Taiwan
wants to send a signal that it is determined to get
independence even by military means, as it has the
encouragement and protection of the US. The US obviously
wants to say to Taiwan, "Get what you want and we will
help you and protect you," and to mainland China, "Let
Taiwan be independent, or we will intervene."
Will the political purposes of all the three
parties be achieved? No. None of the parties can achieve
the intended purposes of these military maneuvers;
instead the maneuvers may lead to actual war around the
Taiwan Strait, a disastrous consequence for China, the
US and, in particular, Taiwan.
First, the
purposes of such maneuvers by mainland China will not be
fully understood by Taiwan and the US and Beijing's
determination to safeguard the unity of the whole
country may not be correctly interpreted, since the
mainland for long has avoided resorting to military
force in its unification cause and restrained itself in
showcasing its military power. Mainlanders had taken it
for granted that people in Taiwan were compatriots -
like brothers and sisters in a family in their longtime
interactions with each other until President Chen
Shui-bian's disputed election for a second term in
March.
Taiwan, encouraged by the US militarily
and politically, has the impression that mainlanders are
weak and do not have the determination and resources to
crush Taiwan's independence even if they want to as
their economy is at a fast growth rate and the Summer
Olympic Games will soon be held in Beijing. Moreover,
Taiwan may think that mainland China would not risk its
economy in taking over Taiwan while the US is standing
alongside it. Furthermore, Taiwan is well armed and has
a close relationship with Japan, another economic and
potential military superpower in Asia and the world.
Japan might go to Taiwan's aid In case
of war between mainland China and Taiwan, Japan is
expected to give Taiwan a hand. Presumably, a joint
force by the US, Japan and Taiwan would create
formidable pressure to mainland China if it wants to
attack Taiwan in case of Taiwan's declaration of
independence. With this scenario in mind, Taiwan will
not be afraid of the military maneuvers conducted by
mainland China. Instead it may gain some confidence in
resisting a possible attack from the mainland in its
independence efforts, which can be seen in Taiwan's
military maneuvers being held almost at the same time
with those of mainland China and close to Dongshan
Island, where mainland China is conducting military
maneuvers. Taiwan reportedly has deployed missiles and
powerful radar equipment on Matzu Island, only about 16
kilometers away from the mainland coast.
Second, Taiwan will not achieve the
purposes of its military maneuvers: to deter mainland
China from attacking Taiwan if Taiwan declares
independence. Taiwan may not understand that mainlanders
regard the unity of the whole country as the basis of
further economic development, state power and national
dignity and security. According to Taiwan, if the cost
of uniting Taiwan with the mainland is high enough, the
mainland will give up its claim to Taiwan and will allow
Taiwan to gain independence. Not surprisingly, Taiwan's
present leaders try their best to sharpen their teeth
and lock the US and Japan in Taiwan's interest.
Yet what Taiwan does not understand is that
territorial integrity is more important than economic
development to mainland China, as has been mentioned. If
Taiwan breaks away from China, it may mean the beginning
of the disintegration of China and the end of China, a
cost no government in mainland China can bear and a fact
that no Chinese can accept. Therefore, to mainlanders
unification is not a matter of debate but a matter of
time; the restraint in provocative actions from the
mainland is not weakness but a tactic. Taiwan's military
maneuvers will not deter mainland China; rather, they
will stimulate the mainland. The stronger the military
power Taiwan shows in its military maneuvers, the more
severe the attack Taiwan will suffer in a possible
future conflict, as the mainland would have to guarantee
its crushing power if it wanted to launch any attack.
Third, will the US achieve its purpose in
its maneuvers - to deter China from attacking Taiwan in
case of Taiwan's independence by building up a large-
scale military power around the Taiwan Strait? No.
Militarily and economically speaking, the US is much
more powerful than China. Possibly, China will be a
competitor to the US in the future; however, to the US,
global dominance is the highest priority, and China
remains only a part of Washington's global strategy,
though not a small part. Taiwan is only a card that the
US can use in containing China to maintain its absolute
dominance in the world.
To China, Taiwan is a
life or death issue Even if China takes back
Taiwan and grows into a competitive power, the US will
still remain the dominant country in the world - if the
US is not involved in the possible war between the two
sides of the Taiwan Strait and diminished by the war. To
China, however, Taiwan is a matter of life or death.
Naturally, China will go all out to fight the war if it
breaks out. Understandably, the situation is more
serious than the Korean War in the last century to
mainland China.
Even if China is defeated at the
end of the war with US involvement, it can still be a
powerful country in the region in terms of its vast
territory and large population. However, the situation
may be completely different with the US if it gets
itself involved in the possible war between the Taiwan
Strait and cannot guarantee that it will not be
diminished in the war. If the US were diminished in the
war, it would lose its dominant position in the world
and become only a regional power, a price no rational US
government would like to pay. Furthermore, US
intervention in the Taiwan Strait might start another
world war, something the American people would have to
consider seriously.
Fourth, since Japan
has joined the US military maneuvers, will Japan
intervene once the war between the two sides of the
Taiwan Strait happens? No. Even if Japan wants very much
to intervene, the price for Japan to pay in its
intervention is unsustainable. As China and Japan are
closely connected with each other economically, once
Japan goes into war with China, the potential economic
loss will be very great. Moreover, Japan is
geographically very close to China, so it is vulnerable
to attacks from China in case of war. Taking the present
emotional feelings of the two peoples into
consideration, if Japan intervenes in the possible war
between Taiwan and mainland China, China will surely go
all out to fight the war.
If the US and Japan
jointly intervene, Japan will sustain most of the
attacks from China. Hence the possible end of the war
would be a total defeat of China, the destruction of
both Japan and Taiwan and certain damage, even serious
damage, to the US. As the price of intervention is so
high, it is not possible that Japan would be willing to
sacrifice its own country for the maintenance of US
global dominance.
There might be another
scenario of the ending of the possible war: the total
defeat of China, the severe damage to both Japan and US
and the total destruction of Taiwan. In that case the
hatred between China and Japan would be deepened
further. As China is geographically and demographically
very large and Japan is small, Japan would not have any
chance to destroy China, yet would China have the chance
to destroy Japan? After 100 or 200 years, China may have
the power to seek revenge again, a never-ending
nightmare scenario to Japan. Thus what has happened and
what is going between Israelis and Arabs can serve to
some degree as a lesson to both Chinese people and
Japanese people in dealing with each other.
If
the political purposes of the military maneuvers of all
the parties cannot be achieved, what would happen if the
maneuvers continue? Now Taiwan seems to be very much
encouraged by the US to become independent; the United
States looks determined to intervene in any way; China
has no way to back down. A very likely result would be
the outbreak of a war between Taiwan and mainland China,
ending with the destruction of Taiwan, though the US may
offer some form of support to Taiwan.
At the
present time the possible disaster might be avoided if
the US could stop encouraging Taiwan immediately and
seek cooperation with mainland China, a win-win
situation for all of the three parties. Yet it is
already too late to take the situation under control,
since the US is so fond of absolute global dominance and
Taiwan led by Chen Shui-bian has pushed too far for
independence. It's a pity that the well-designed
large-scale military maneuvers could only be ominous
signals to the people on both sides of the Taiwan
Strait.
Tang Leijun teaches English at
Qingdao University, Shandong, China.
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