| |
Pentagon fires off new China
report
By David
Isenberg
Brace yourself - it turns out that
China actually has the unmitigated gall to want to act
like a major power and equip its military accordingly.
The horror, the horror!
At least that is the
impression one gets from reading "Military Power of the
People's Republic of China", an annual report the
Pentagon produces, the latest version of which was
publicly released last Wednesday. For example, the very
first paragraph of the executive summary states:
Beijing is pursuing its long-term
political goals of developing its comprehensive
national power and ensuring a favorable "strategic
configuration of power". China's efforts to accomplish
its security goals involve an integrated strategy that
seeks to apply diplomatic, informational, military,
and economic instruments of national power. China's
leaders believe that national unity and stability are
critical if China is to survive and develop as a
nation. Chinese leaders also believe they must
maintain conditions of state sovereignty and
territorial integrity. As a generic
statement of geopolitical strategy, that is perfectly
fine, but as an indication of a threat by a great-power
competitor, as many analysts in the United States would
interpret it, it is woefully lacking.
For
example, the report noted that China currently has about
20 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable
of targeting the United States. This number could
increase to about 30 by 2005 and may reach 60 by 2010.
The United States currently has 540 ICBMs and
384 SLBMs (sea-launched ballistic missiles).
Curiously, the report does not really have any
net assessment regarding the future overall threat to US
military capabilities in Asia. In part, that may be due
to the inherent difficulty of making such assessments.
Or it may be that such an assessment would show that
China is less of a threat than commonly depicted.
For example, in June the US Council on Foreign
Relations released a task-force report that found that
"although China is in the midst of a comprehensive
modernization program, the Chinese military is at least
two decades behind the United States in terms of
military technology and capability. Moreover, the task
force judges that if the United States continues to
dedicate significant resources to improving its military
forces, as expected, the balance between the United
States and China, both globally and in Asia, is likely
to remain in America's favor beyond the next 20 years."
The Pentagon report is interesting both for what
it reports and for what it omits. There are many new
details in the usual sections on the modernization of
China's air, naval, ground, air, missile-defense and
strategic missile forces, but they do not always provide
context.
For example, one reads about China's
acquisition of new Russian Kilo-class diesel-electric
submarines, but there is no mention of the loss of one
of its indigenous Ming-class submarines this year that
resulted in the deaths of 70 sailors.
Similarly,
while there are lots of details regarding Russian
weapons sales and technology transfers to China, there
is almost nothing on similar transfers from Israel,
which has been a longtime supplier to China, dating back
to the mid-1980s. Israel provided significant help to
China's F-10 fighter. Nor does it note that Russia wants
to keep China as a customer but not a competitor. Thus
Russia only sells military hardware that is one
generation out of date and only defense products -
without giving China the capability to produce those
products itself.
Also, one does not learn from
reading the report that generally Chinese military
technology integration is inconsistent and has poor
quality control, experiences lengthy weapons development
cycles (15 years average), has logistical deficiencies,
and suffers from doctrinal and operational challenges.
In regard to short-range ballistic missiles
(SRBMs), the report states that China already has about
450 in its inventory and that this number is expected to
increase by 75 over the next few years. And the number
to be deployed opposite Taiwan is expected to increase
substantially over the next several years. Last year the
Pentagon had counted 350 of the missiles and had
estimated that 50 would be deployed each year.
Currently, all of China's short-range CSS-7 and
CSS-6 missiles are deployed in the Nanjing military
region, located across the Taiwan Strait from Taiwan.
Predictably, China reacted angrily to implication that
it would use the missiles against Taiwan in
a future conflict. According to Agence France-Presse, "Safeguarding
the sovereignty and integrity of our territory is
every country's undoubted right," the Foreign
Ministry said, adding that the Pentagon comments were
a ruse to justify Washington selling advanced weapons to
Taipei.
If that is the intent, it seems to be
working. Last Thursday the White House warned that it
was prepared to sell Taipei the weapons to defend
itself. The White House press spokesman said the
administration of President George W Bush would "fulfill
our commitments" under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act,
which calls for the United States to sell Taiwan the
weapons to maintain a self-defense capability.
In April 2001 Bush offered Taiwan the biggest US weapons package in 10 years,
including four Kidd-class destroyers, 12 P-3C Orion submarine-hunting
aircraft, and help in obtaining up
to eight submarines. Last month Taiwan's parliament finally approved the US$700
million purchase of the destroyers. Also last
month, it was reported that Washington had
agreed to ship AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missiles
to the Taiwanese air force to ensure military balance in
the Taiwan Strait.
The Pentagon report estimated
that China's military spending could range from $45
billion to $65 billion a year, the second-largest
military budget after that of the United States. That
may sound large but, in contrast, a new report from the
US Congressional Budget Office states that the 2004
Future Years Defense Program for the United States
anticipates that defense resources (excluding
supplemental appropriations) will rise from $282 billion
next year to $439 billion in 2009. If the program is
carried out as currently envisaged, the demand for
increased spending will continue through 2022, averaging
$458 billion a year between 2010 and 2022.
Although much of this year's report was
virtually the same as last year's, there was one
noteworthy addition. The report said Chinese strategists
may be modifying the conditions they believe would
justify Chinese use of theater nuclear weapons against
US forces in East Asia, possibly in the context of a war
over Taiwan.
For the full text of the
Pentagon report in PDF format, click here.
(Copyright 2003
Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
