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China's Iraq stance pleases US - for
now
By Antoaneta Bezlova
BEIJING - Worried that China is now much more
capable of bringing strong counter-pressure at the
United Nations Security Council, Washington has been
pleasantly surprised to find that Beijing's position on
strong measures against Iraq has been more flexible than
it expected.
As one of the permanent Security
Council members wielding veto power and one that
traditionally opposes US "hegemonism", China is a player
that could still tip the balance on a tough resolution
setting new terms for Iraq to disarm chemical or
biological weapons.
China abstained on almost
all votes on the Iraq issue before the 1991 Gulf War and
opposed sanctions on that country afterward.
But
while Beijing's stand may thus far be welcome news to
Washington, the United States also has less leverage to
exercise on China's decisions these days.
Ten
years ago, for instance, China was seeking to repair
damage to its international image in the aftermath of
1989 Tiananmen massacre and kept this in mind in its
foreign policy. A member of the World Trade Organization
since December, China today need not worry about losing
its special trade status, granted by the US Congress, if
its actions run against US plans.
Yet so far,
instead of attempting to boost its advantage and lash
out against the United States - which it sees as an
international bully - during the past few weeks Beijing
has been careful to display a moderate neutrality and
distance itself from Saddam Hussein's regime.
Noticeably too, state media have been void of
the usual condemnation of the belligerent US policy of
interference in the "internal affairs of other
countries".
Instead, Beijing has opted to give
wide coverage to both foreign and domestic opposition to
Washington plans to invade Iraq. On Monday night, US
President George W Bush issued his latest warning
against Iraq, saying it and its allies could take action
"on any given day" even without a UN resolution that is
still under discussion.
The Foreign Ministry has
reiterated China's position against an invasion of Iraq
and for a political solution to the crisis. At the same
time though, Beijing has received a British envoy that
arrived with a mission to brief Chinese officials on the
text of a draft resolution proposed by Washington to UN
members.
Under the US proposal, Iraq would have
30 days to provide comprehensive information on all
aspects of its weapons development program. The US draft
calls for "use of all necessary means", widely believed
to include an invasion, if the Security Council finds
that Iraq gave false or inaccurate information or failed
to comply with the conditions of the resolution.
Beijing has said it is willing to study a new
Security Council resolution. Foreign Ministry
spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said on Tuesday that "the
international community must be fair and objective in
assessing Iraq's compliance with the resolutions".
A signed editorial in the official
English-language newspaper China Daily last month warned
Saddam Hussein that time was running out. Although the
article did not voice support for the United States or
any US-led military action, it declared: "This is the
last chance for Saddam Hussein to deprive the Americans
of a legal case against himself."
Beijing's
subtle change of rhetoric reflects China's policy of
sustaining good momentum in US-China relations, analysts
say.
A recent flurry of high-level contacts
Beijing and Washington has underscored the new warm
trend between the two nuclear-armed powers. Bush has
visited China twice in one year - a precedent for a US
president. Chinese President Jiang Zemin is scheduled to
visit Bush at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, this month.
Jiang, who is also general secretary of the
Communist Party, is supposed to step down at the 16th
Party Congress that opens on November 8. He has invested
a great deal of personal effort in restoring China's
influence with the United States after the Tiananmen
massacre and sees good relations between Beijing and
Washington as a landmark of his 13 years in office.
The flow of US investment, capital and
technology into China and access to the US market by
Chinese companies and citizens has been a key factor in
the country's economic growth of the past 20 years - and
Beijing is clearly not willing to jeopardize this.
But while acquiescent to the possibility of war,
Beijing remains uneasy. Its key concern is securing
access to vital Iraqi oil reserves. China has no
strategic oil reserves and its imports are rising every
year, making it very vulnerable to the higher prices
that would follow an attack on Iraq and tensions in the
Middle East.
Official estimates say that by
2005, China will consume 260 million tons of oil, of
which 80 million will be imported, and that by 2015 it
will have to import at least half its requirements.
China buys oil from Iraq, with which it enjoys good
trade relations. A war, especially a protracted one,
would mean massive destabilization of the region, the
disruption of oil supplies, and perhaps, a downturn in
global economic growth.
Should Washington
succeed in its objective to topple Saddam Hussein's
government and replace it with a democratically oriented
and pro-US government, then the danger for China is
twofold. Iraqi oil supplies would be more available, but
controlled by the United States. Thus, Beijing would
find itself facing a US sphere of influence stretching
from Turkey through Iraq to Central Asia.
"There
would be almost no vacuum left without US military
involvement from Asia to the Mediterranean coast," noted
a commentary in the military-backed Liberation Daily
last month.
"Coupled with its influence in
Europe through NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization]
and clout in the Asia-Pacific region through its
alliance with Japan, the United States is completing its
global monopoly ambitions," the article concluded.
(Inter Press Service)
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