Nazarbaev faults Europe on Nabucco
By Robert M Cutler
MONTREAL - President Nursultan Nazarbaev of Kazakhstan publicly endorsed the
Nabucco natural gas pipeline earlier this month - then criticized Europe for
putting too much talk into the project and not enough action.
Nabucco is projected to bring natural gas from the Caspian Sea basin to the
Baumgarten gas hub in Austria via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary.
Putting his personal prestige behind the concept, Nazarbaev stated in Astana
last week, at a joint press conference with visiting German Chancellor Angela
Merkel that "Kazakhstan has
never been against Nabucco; the issue is that in Europe there is a lot of talk
about Nabucco, but in practice little is being done," he said. "The European
Union could work more actively on this."
Kazakhstan's participation required either an undersea pipeline or, at a
minimum, a gas liquefaction plant on the country's Caspian Sea coastline, he
said, but "nothing is being done on either issue except talk".
Beate Eschment, a leading
German expert on
Kazakhstan, told Deutsche Welle that she was "very surprised" by Nazarbaev's criticism
of Europe's pace in moving the project forward, which she called a "
new development".
Merkel was in Kazakhstan on her way to China. She had already visited Russia
earlier in the month. The trips were undertaken mainly with a focus on economic
diplomacy on behalf of German industry. In Russia, she was responding both to
domestic critics who have disparaged her recent inattention to Moscow as an
important German economic partner on the one hand and, on the other, to
Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev's signature, in June, on a bill that reduced
the number of so-called "strategic enterprises" in the country from 208 to 41
and "federal unitary enterprises” from 230 to 159.
This move is intended to increase opportunities for foreign investors to assist
in Medvedev's economic modernization program, by which he intends, he said in a
speech to the Russian Foreign Ministry two weeks ago, to promote modernization
of the political system as well.
In that speech, which caused a stir in Moscow as reported by Kommersant, he
emphasized the fight against organized crime and the strengthening of Russian
democracy and civil society as tasks of Russian foreign policy.
Insofar as the modernization of the economy and production were concerned, he
named Germany in the first rank of foreign partners, followed by France, Italy,
the rest of the European Union and also the United States. Thus Merkel's
delegation included over two dozen German business leaders and scored some
successes. The German side had its eyes especially on renovation of the Russian
industrial plant, with special attention to the energy sector.
Merkel was also concerned to promote economic ties in China, which is
increasingly competitive with German imports of raw materials from Russia as
well as exports of finished goods to Russia. China is also highly competitive
with Europe for energy exports from Kazakhstan, where it has a strong presence
in the sector and for nearly a decade has been building oil and gas pipelines
into western China. From there, the resources are transmitted to the central
and especially eastern coastal parts of the country to satisfy ever-growing
demand.
Nazarbaev's criticism of the EU regarding Nabucco is also applicable to the
Kazakhstan-Caspian Transportation System (KCTS) project, which is set to take
oil from the huge offshore Kashagan deposit to Eskene, onshore near Tengiz, and
on to the port of Kuryk, near Aqtau. From there, it will be shipped across the
Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan for insertion into the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
pipeline from Azerbaijan to the eastern Mediterranean - the capacity of the
pipeline would be increased for the purpose by up to 70% through the use of
chemical additives and other technical means - or, alternatively, conveyed to
the Black Sea coast for transshipment to Europe. (See
Four-way street in Kazakhstan, Asia Times Online, September 18, 2009.)
France signed onto that project last year, a significant development in light
of the French company Total's participation in the consortium developing
Kashagan as well as in operating BTC pipeline. However, planning construction
of this pipeline has hit snags, and it is possible that oil tankers will do the
job of taking the crude to Azerbaijan in the beginning. Even that development,
however, requires planning of construction facilities and logistical foresight.
Initial start-up for the project, in whatever form it acquires, is still set
for 2012.
A pipeline across the seabed would be most cost-effective. Some estimates say
the tanker transportation will not be cost-effective after 2017. A gas pipeline
for associated gas from Kashagan could also run to Azerbaijan, and a pipeline
from Turkmenistan could be built to join that pipeline in the Kazakhstan sector
of the Caspian Sea, obviating the need for a solution to the dispute with
Azerbaijan over the offshore Kyapaz/Serdar deposit that has up until now
blocked bilateral cooperation on energy matters between the two countries.
With investment decisions falling due within the next 12 months on a series of
projects including Nabucco as well as the competing Russian-sponsored South
Stream project, Nazarbaev's public statement should serve to help focus the
EU's attention on the crucial window now approaching and threatening to close.
Beginning about a year and a half ago, Merkel has been able progressively to
increase her margin of maneuver vis-a-vis the German diplomatic tradition,
reaching back into the 19th century, of centering its worldview on an entente
with Russia. The movement from one coalition partner to another in the wake of
the last parliamentary elections has facilitated that development.
If Germany is to have a truly global profile, and assist Europe in finding its
place in the future, then it must not restrict its vision to partnership with
Russia and Turkey, and instead go beyond them in both the metaphorical and
geographical senses.
Dr Robert M Cutler(http://www.robertcutler.org), educated at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Michigan, has
researched and taught at universities in the United States, Canada, France,
Switzerland, and Russia. Now senior research fellow in the Institute of
European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, Canada, he also
consults privately in a variety of fields.
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