Kazakhstan has a unique problem. It's long on land and short on the people to
farm it. The Central Asian country is huge - about six times the size of France
- but has less than one-quarter of France's population - just 16 million
people.
Although Kazakhstan's desert and mountainous regions are not arable, its ample
steppe land is, and enough of the Kazakh population turns to farming it to make
the country one of the world's leading grain producers. There is still an ample
amount of land that goes uncultivated, however.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev addressed this issue during a recent
meeting of his office's Council of Foreign Investors
on December 4. He surprised many when he mentioned a possible solution, saying
neighboring China was interested in renting 1 million hectares of Kazakh
farmland.
As Kazakh officials have increasingly made mention of a formal Chinese
proposal, seeds of opposition have grown.
In the commercial capital, Almaty, on December 17, Kazakhs assembled for the
second straight day to protest the prospect of Chinese farming their land.
Bolat Abilov, co-chairman of opposition United Social Democratic Party Azat,
warned the crowd of the potential consequences.
"Citizens, dear citizens, dear compatriots! I will talk briefly, about only one
problem - about the land issue," Abilov said. "If we tomorrow give, or
distribute, 1 million hectares of land, it would mean 15 people working per
hectare. That means 15 million people would be brought from China. If one of
those 15 people were to give birth each year, that would be the end. In 50
years there would be 50 million Chinese [in Kazakhstan]. Let's stop this move
announced by Nazarbayev."
Many critics fear that Nazarbayev decided early on to grant China's wish.
Gulzhan Yergalieva, editor-in-chief of the independent Almaty-based newspaper
Svoboda Slovo, spoke to RFE/RL's Kazakh Service on December 11, shortly after
Nazarbayev first floated the idea of renting land to China.
Yergalieva was attending a rally outside the Chinese consulate in Almaty, where
a small group of activists was trying to hand over a note of protest to the
Chinese ambassador.
"We believe that if the president is talking about this proposal, then this is
a serious matter," Yergalieva said. "And in this regard we wanted to, through
the consulate in Almaty, hand over our note to the Chinese government saying
that we do not agree to this proposal."
Participants at the rally also had a message for the Chinese president, who was
due to arrive in Kazakhstan the next day. They unrolled a placard that read:
"Mr Hu Jintao, we will not give up Kazakh land!"
Kazakh Agriculture Minister Akylbek Kurishbaev later said Hu and Nazarbayev did
not discuss the issue of renting Kazakh land. But Deputy Agriculture Minister
Arman Yevniev, in an interview with RFE/RL's Kazakh Service, shed light on the
state of discussions on the issue.
"It's obvious the discussions are about China's need for agricultural products
like soybeans. Their annual imports come to some 40 million tons, and the
tendency is toward an increase of these volumes every year," Yevniev said.
"Regarding our zone in south Kazakhstan, the steppe of south Kazakhstan and
Zhambyl provinces, if this land were effectively cultivated, [soybeans] could
grow there."
Yevniev was clear, however, that Kazakh law does not allow another country to
"rent" land. "Concerning the 1 million hectares, we are talking not about
handing it over or sectioning it off, but about organizing production in 1
million hectares of fields," he said.
Yevniev stressed that Kazakhstan and China are talking about organizing
production on farms and investment in such farming projects.
Fears that Chinese involvement in Kazakh agriculture is a foregone conclusion
appear to be at least partially correct. Yevniev, the deputy agriculture
minister, said a "test" is about to start.
"Probably even this year there will be a test on 10,000 or 15,000 hectares of
land, growing soy within the framework of this project, although we have soy
planted on some 70,000 hectares," he said.
One person in Kazakhstan who has a long history in dealing with China is urging
caution. Murat Auezov was Kazakhstan's first ambassador to China, serving in
Beijing from 1992 to 1995.
Commenting to RFE/RL on the possibility of a deal being worked out for 1
million hectares of farmland, Auezov posed a number of questions.
"This is a project that requires the migration of many people. Who will grow
the crops? Who will harvest and prepare it? Who will get it ready for sale?"
Auezov said. "We know what the strategic aims of China are, and how China can
use any kind of terminology to achieve its goals."
And Auezov had some candid comments on China's methods of doing business.
"The Chinese are masters in the art of bribery on different levels. But what
kind of China asks Kazakhstan to make available 1.2 million hectares of land to
grow soybeans?" Auezov said. "This is the China that gave Kazakhstan US$10
billion in credit during one of the [Kazakh] president's recent trips."
Auezov also noted a border demarcation agreed upon by the two countries at the
end of the 1990s. Kazakhstan inherited from the Soviet Union 34,000 square
kilometers of "disputed" territory claimed by China. After several years of
talks, both sides concluded a deal that was unpopular with many in Kazakhstan
at the time.
"When they defined the disputed territory," Auezov said, "it was important for
the Chinese to take the strategic high ground and leave the Kazakh border
guards down in the lowlands. And when [Kazakh authorities] told the people that
Kazakhstan did not lose one meter of land and even gained 51% [more land], they
were referring to all this territory that was disputed - not one meter of it on
the Chinese side of the border, all of it on our side. But this division of 51%
turned out to mean that from our previous 100% the Chinese took 49%.
"If this question is decided in favor of the proposal from China, then it will
be the very colonization of Kazakhstan. And we're not talking about one region
but across a wide front."
Merchants moved
An influx of Chinese workers has already been causing friction with local
populations in neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
In Kyrgyzstan, there have been several informal local campaigns to chase
Chinese merchants from local bazaars. In some cases, local residents have
successfully complained to officials about Chinese merchants taking over
Central Asian bazaars by their sheer number, prompting immigration checks that
thin Chinese merchants.
In Tajikistan, Chinese laborers have been building new roads to connect
Tajikistan to China. There have been several incidents in the last two years of
fights involving scores of locals and Chinese workers.
As China's neighbor for millennia, Central Asians long ago grew wary of this
Goliath on their doorstep. Now, with China rich (again), Beijing is willing to
sign deals to not only purchase Central Asia's energy resources but to fund
construction of the infrastructure needed to bring it to China.
And as China loans billions of dollars to the Central Asian states, especially
those with oil and gas, its expanding influence is being felt throughout the
region.
Erzhan Karabek and Sultan-Khan Zhussip of RFE/RL's Kazakh Service
contributed to this report
Copyright (c) 2009, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
20036
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
