Russia, NATO and the 'Obama factor' By Roger McDermott
Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are taking tentative
steps towards repairing relations which were suspended following the
Russia-Georgia war in August 2008.
Following unofficial, closed talks within the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) on
January 26 in Brussels, Russia's ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, told Ekho
Moskvy radio in Moscow that the "ice had broken". However, he overstated the
resumption of "large-scale activities", as both sides are now only
incrementally improving relations and with much circumspection.
Ambassador Rogozin was realistic about the real issues between Russia and NATO,
which will require serious diplomacy on both
sides to repair after the damage inflicted by last year's conflict in the South
Caucasus.
Rogozin said neither side could act as though the war never happened, a point
NATO officials accept since Russia has recognized the "independence" of
Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and has de facto
changed the borders of its neighbor by force. This makes returning to business
as usual fraught with pitfalls. The fissure could potentially re-emerge once
the European Union reaches findings based on its investigation into the causes
of the war.
Moreover, Rogozin asserted the conflict had revealed two divergent approaches
taken to security issues. He said NATO based its approach on the
"friend-or-foe" principle, and that was not acceptable.
But Eastern European and Baltic members of NATO would still like to see a
signal conveyed to Moscow about their sovereignty and security. They would also
like a re-affirmation of Article 5 - the legal right of collective self-defense
as a result of an attack on one or more member-states being considered as an
attack on them all.
Diplomatic mechanisms
Despite these ongoing issues, the pace of repairing relations is gathering
momentum. In addition to the informal meetings that have already brought both
sides together - without public disclosure of their talks - the first official
contact is likely to occur at the Munich Security Conference next weekend.
This will bring NATO secretary general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer face to face with
Sergey Ivanov, deputy prime minister and head of the Russian delegation. The
process could be complete around the time of the NATO summit in Strasbourg and
Keil beginning April 3.
There are other signs that each side wants to renew ties. Brussels appreciates
it is in no one's interests to isolate Russia, and seems prepared to approach
the issue on a more practical footing by reducing unnecessary bureaucracy from
the NRC and re-focusing on defining the problems and potential areas of
cooperation.
Russian Federation Council Speaker Sergey Mironov believes Russia and NATO will
succeed in finding common ground on the issue of providing security in
Afghanistan, despite present difficulties.
"The US and NATO are looking for alternative ways of delivering supplies to the
international forces in Afghanistan, and Russia is ready to help them with
that. Washington has welcomed the statement of the Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev about Russia's readiness to fully cooperate with the US on security
issues in Afghanistan," Mironov said.
Moscow stands firm
Since relations were suspended, several factors have caused Moscow to dig in
over its foreign policy agenda despite the deepening and drastic economic
problems now facing an economically weaker Russia. These obstacles involve
perceptions of the Russian ruling elites, but nevertheless will possibly make
Moscow a tougher partner to deal with.
For example, Mirinov pointedly referred to the fact that Russia had not stepped
back from NATO, alleging Moscow had avoided "giving into emotions" during the
Georgia crisis. In real terms, Russia has not given into any of the key demands
made by Western states concerning the outcome of the conflict in Georgia.
Within only a few days of the inauguration of United States President Barack
Obama, Russia mooted the idea that it will suspend its plans to station
Iskander ballistic missiles in the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad in response to
US missile defense shield components planned for deployment in Poland and the
Czech Republic. Moscow has done this because of a perceived shift over missile
defense within the new administration in Washington.
Such developments, and other departures from the foreign policies of the George
W Bush era, are viewed from Moscow's perspective as proof that its foreign
policy goals can be met simply by holding firm.
Moscow hopes for cooperation on arms control, piracy and Afghanistan. Although
Moscow is still reluctant to open military transit routes to Afghanistan as a
means of cooperation and now seeks to access Kabul as a market for Russian
arms. At the same time, the Kremlin views its relations with NATO through the
kaleidoscope of its bilateral relationship with the US.
Mirinov made reference to the need to cooperate in order to avoid future
conflicts in Europe and Asia. Moscow is keen to utilize the opportunity to
develop a new European security treaty at a point when NATO's greatest
challenge lies in Afghanistan.
Medvedev seeks equal voice
Russia does not want a return to the former NRC, which it came to regard as
ineffectual since its objections to NATO enlargement were not acted upon.
Moscow would now like to benefit from the change of administration in
Washington in order to revise the mechanism of the NRC, in other words, finding
a way of ensuring it cannot be unilaterally suspended at any point.
Although NATO-Russia relations are progressing towards the restoration of
official contacts, it is clear that Russia wants something new from those
relations - something that transcends merely providing a framework to discuss
problems.
NATO's military cooperation with Russia will gradually be re-activated under
the NRC. In the long term, however, challenges will center on rebuilding trust
and deepening practical cooperation. Moscow will equally seek to inspire a
"lessons learned" reflection in Brussels that considers the mistakes made by
NATO in its dealings with Russia and how these may be avoided in future.
But this is the only the beginning of a long Russian wish list. Moscow will
push for such policy changes as establishing multilateral contacts between NATO
and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO).
On the other hand, NATO must place difficult issues on the table. Among these
will be energy security, not only in the aftermath of the military conflict in
the South Caucasus - which exposed the vulnerability of the pipeline
infrastructure - but the more recent gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Increasing competition over future energy resources in the Arctic need
resolving and could benefit from constructive discussion within such a forum.
As NATO-Russia relations thaw in the coming months, Moscow's level of
expectation will grow concerning a possible recalibration of Washington's
handling of NATO. In particular, Russia expects personnel changes within the
American delegation at NATO.
In the Russian media, speculation has mounted that US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton may play a positive role in building stronger bilateral
US-Russia ties. There is also respect in Moscow for Obama's decision to appoint
General James Jones as his national security advisor. Jones is viewed as a
person who understands the concerns Russia has had over a number of US policy
steps.
President Medvedev sees this an opportunity for Russia to be regarded as an
equal partner by NATO, recognizing its "great power" status. Rogozin said Obama
may use Jones to gain a more direct view of what is going on at NATO, rather
than viewing the alliance as mainly the preserve of the US State Department.
Afghanistan is the key security challenge facing NATO. This year will prove a
crucial tipping point in the alliance's mission there considering the planned
troop reductions by key coalition members - including Canada and the
Netherlands. There are also doubts about the continued mandate from Berlin and
pressure on NATO's supply lines through Pakistan.
Russia's willingness to offer practical support for these efforts may hinge on
its bilateral relations with the US and how it reads the unfolding "Obama
factor" within NATO.
Even as NATO attempts to mend ties with Russia amid a complex, new European
security architecture, the alliances main tensions are internal. Disputes are
simmering among member states over Afghanistan and the reluctance of some
members to commit additional forces.
Obama arguably faces his toughest test in restoring a sense of unity inside
NATO after the divisions that surfaced over Membership Action Plans (MAPs) for
Georgia and Ukraine.
Roger N McDermott is an honorary senior fellow, Department of Politics
and International Relations, University of Kent at Canterbury (UK) specializing
in defense and security issues in Russia, Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
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