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4 The new 'NATO of the East' takes
shape By M K Bhadrakumar
Moscow would vehemently oppose the
US strategy: "There should be no secret attempts
aimed at 'pushing' some countries out of the
existing system of regional relations."
He
added meaningfully, "Nobody opposes the
strengthening of ties between states from
different subregions in Asia, but if it is done in
order to 'detach' Central Asian countries under
the pretext that a geopolitical reorientation of
these countries toward the
south
is allegedly a 'good thing', we will not agree
with that." Denisov's statement, though
implicitly, contains a rare rebuke of India.
SCO eyes Hindu Kush The SCO has
begun hitting back at the United States' Great
Central Asia strategy. It is hitting back in
Afghanistan, which Washington regards as the "hub"
of its strategy to link Central Asia with South
Asia. The SCO put the US on notice that it is
quite capable of contesting the Anglo-American
monopoly of conflict resolution in Afghanistan.
The Bishkek declaration said, "The member
countries are willing to participate in the
efforts to normalize Afghanistan's political
situation ... as well as improve the work of the
SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group."
The joint
communique issued after the Bishkek summit went a
step further, saying, "The [SCO] leaders also
discussed the possibility of the SCO taking bigger
part in the Afghanistan affairs, to contribute
more to regional security and stability." Warning
bells must be ringing in Washington and London.
Putin in his speech at the SCO summit all
but implied that the US and NATO have dismally
failed to prevent Afghanistan from becoming an
open wound infecting Central Asia. He called for
reinforcing "anti-drug security belts" around
Afghanistan supervised by SCO monitors. The summit
decided to organize an international conference on
Afghanistan next year.
The US
counter-strategy toward any SCO role in
Afghanistan will be by way of binding Pakistan
even closer to NATO. Pakistan's "loyalty" becomes
crucial because most of the supplies for the NATO
forces go through Pakistani territory. But, in
turn, this makes the United States' Afghan
strategy even more heavily dependent on Pakistan's
cooperation. One offshoot is that Washington
shudders at the thought of any "regime change" to
take place in Islamabad, no matter President
General Pervez Musharraf's standing in Pakistan.
On the other hand, Washington is under
compulsion to accommodate Pakistan's legitimate
interests in Afghanistan. The recent peace
jirga in Kabul is a step toward reaching
some sort of political accommodation with the
Taliban as well as for strengthening the Durand
Line, the Afghan-Pakistani border. According to
latest reports, US officials have already begun
holding face-to-face meetings with the Taliban
representatives in secret locations inside
Pakistan. Of course, any such talks would have to
be under the watchful eyes of Pakistani
intelligence.
Central Asian states will
view the appeasement of the Taliban with great
concern. Uzbek President Islam Karimov, in his
speech at the Bishkek summit, called for the West
to "demilitarize" Afghanistan.
Energy
war intensifies Meanwhile, a new factor in
the US regional policy has appeared in the nature
of the likely membership of Iran and Turkmenistan
in the SCO. For different reasons, Washington
would like to see that such an eventuality is
averted for the foreseeable future. As regards
Iran, Washington would see its SCO membership as a
setback to its robust diplomatic campaign to
isolate that country. As regards Turkmenistan,
Washington factors that a potential SCO "energy
club" (mooted by Moscow) will remain incomplete as
long as Turkmenistan doesn't become part of it.
In both respects, Washington can derive
satisfaction from the outcome of the Bishkek
summit. The SCO seems unprepared for the present
to grant Iran full membership. Not surprisingly,
the SCO doesn't want to get sucked into the
Iran-US standoff with its potential ramifications
for Russian-US and Sino-US relations if a military
confrontation takes place, which cannot be ruled
out. On the contrary, the SCO is overtly keen to
grant membership to Turkmenistan, but President
Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov is playing hard to
get.
Just ahead of the SCO summit, Daniel
Sullivan, the US assistant secretary of state for
economic, energy and business affairs, arrived in
Ashgabat urging Berdymukhammedov to diversify
Turkmenistan's energy export routes and promising
deeper cooperation with US companies.
"We
believe that increased diversification of energy
routes, buyers and suppliers are in Turkmenistan's
long-term energy-security interest ... Nations
should never be left with only one option, one
market, one trading partner and one vital
infrastructure link ... We are encouraging
American companies to invest in Turkmenistan to
help your country grow," Sullivan exhorted.
At any rate, contrary to earlier
indications, the Bishkek summit put off
Turkmenistan's admission, even though
Berdymukhammedov attended as a special invitee.
The day after the SCO summit concluded,
coincidence or not, Washington announced that it
was granting funds for undertaking a feasibility
study for a trans-Caspian gas pipeline from
Turkmenistan.
Moscow and Beijing should
have reason to worry. It was only last Saturday
that Chinese President Hu Jintao and Kazakh
President Nurusultan Nazarbayev agreed to build an
oil pipeline from Turkmenistan's Caspian shore to
China across Kazakhstan, which will be the second
leg of the Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline with a
throughput capacity of 10 million tonnes annually
and which is expected to come on stream in 2009.
Only three days before the Hu-Nazarbayev
meeting, Kyrgyz and Tajik leaders had separately
canvassed with Hu in Bishkek that a section of yet
another planned Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline
should be built on their territories. Both Russia
and China would feel uneasy that Turkmenistan is
coming under US influence.
Moscow would
count on the forthcoming summit of the Caspian
littoral states to be held in Tehran on October 18
as an occasion for clarifying equations. Russia,
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will take part in the
summit. The Iranian hosts can be expected to lend
a hand in dissuading the Turkmen leader from
trading with the Great Satan in the overall
interests of regional stability.
If Iran
succeeds, the SCO's energy club will take a big
step forward by getting Turkmenistan on board. In
the process, Iran will have enhanced its case
further as regards full membership in the SCO.
Amid all the variables of the volatile
regional and international setting, the SCO
needn't lack optimism. If Powell is right, the SCO
seems all set to go from strength to strength.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for
more than 29 years, with postings including
India's ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-98) and to
Turkey (1998-2001).
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