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Powers swirl around
Uzbekistan
By Dr Michael A
Weinstein
The announcement on June 16 that
Uzbekistan had banned night flights into and out
of the US air base in Khanabad marks the first
serious geostrategic fallout from Washington's
ambivalent response to the violent suppression by
Tashkent of mass protests against the regime of
President Islam Karimov in May in the city of
Andijan.
The Khanabad base, which supports
US military operations in neighboring Afghanistan,
is a key component in US Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld's redeployment policy, which envisions
the substitution of large concentrations of troops
in Europe and South Korea with smaller "lily-pad"
deployments in weaker acquiescent states in
northeast Africa and Eurasia. The aims of
Rumsfeld's plan are to protect strategic energy
supplies, curb destabilizing moves by Islamic
revolutionaries throughout the vast region, and
counter initiatives unfavorable to Washington's
interests by Moscow and Beijing.
As an
immediate result of Tashkent's action, Washington
has had to move some aircraft to Afghanistan and
mount resupply operations from its base in
Kyrgyzstan, adding to expenses and detracting from
efficiency. From a longer-term perspective, the
flight limitations are a signal to Washington that
the Karimov regime is prepared to sacrifice
US-Uzbek relations and, perhaps, even to eliminate
the US military presence in Uzbekistan, if
Washington does not give it a free hand in its
efforts to suppress dissent.
Tashkent
denied on June 18 that its slap at Washington was
related to Andijan and said the flight limitations
had been in the works for a long time and
Washington "knew why". Whatever the case, the
restrictions, which are neither decisive nor
final, reveal underlying weaknesses in the
Rumsfeld strategy, which depends for its success
on compliant governments where the lily pads are
located.
International response to
Andijan
The troubles in Andijan were
sparked by a prison revolt and a mass
demonstration of 10,000 protestors attacking the
trial of 23 local businessmen who were accused of
supporting illegal Islamist organizations deemed
by the government to be "terrorist". In its
ensuing attempts to suppress the direct action,
the regime blocked off the city and, according to
human-rights organizations, killed hundreds of
people and caused a flow of refugees into
neighboring Kyrgyzstan. The regime claims that 175
people died, almost all of them terrorists.
Despite attempts by the regime to close
off the flow of information, the suppression of
the Andijan protest came under the searchlight of
the international news media and spurred responses
by all of the major power centers playing the new
"great game" for influence in Central Asia, where
Uzbekistan is the largest country with 26.5
million people; it also has the strongest military
and is a major exporter of gold and oil.
As the biggest prize in the great game,
China, Russia, the European Union and the US all
have interests and deep involvement in Uzbekistan.
The Karimov regime has attempted to play its
suitors off against one another, gaining maximum
autonomy, trade deals, and economic and military
aid.
The postures of the great powers
toward Andijan are complicated by the long-term
instability and vulnerability of the Karimov
regime that was revealed by the protests. A first
secretary of the Communist Party when Uzbekistan
was part of the former Soviet Union, Karimov has
presided over an authoritarian regime since 1990
that has suppressed parliamentary opposition,
jailed and tortured dissidents, outlawed organized
expression of all forms of Islam at variance with
the regime's officially sanctioned version, and
failed to produce economic growth, particularly in
the restive Fergana Valley where Andijan is
located.
Karimov's sources of support are
alliances with sectors of Uzbekistan's
regionalized clan-based society, crony
capitalists, and the country's security apparatus.
Up until the present, he has been able to maintain
control, but the future of his regime is
uncertain, putting the interests of the parties to
the great game at risk.
Anxious to
eliminate the US military presence in Uzbekistan
and to draw Tashkent firmly and unequivocally into
their Central Asian strategic alliance - the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization - Moscow and
Beijing have placed their bets on Karimov,
unreservedly supporting the Andijan crackdown and
affirming Karimov's account of it and his decision
to reject calls for an independent international
investigation into the incident. As Uzbekistan's
largest export partners, Russia and China see the
opportunity to further their joint quest for a
comprehensive and secure sphere of influence in
Central Asia.
In contrast, the EU has been
the most forthright proponent of an independent
investigation, threatening a partial suspension of
cooperation with Tashkent - if it does not
acquiesce in the demand - that would probably fall
short of trade sanctions but might include a
downgrading of diplomatic relations and a travel
ban on regime officials. With the least
involvement in Uzbekistan of the interested
parties, the EU states have the least to lose and
potentially the most to gain if Karimov falls,
especially if a reformist government takes its
place.
Caught in the middle, with its
military presence in Uzbekistan to protect and its
general policy of promoting democratic reform in
the Islamic world in jeopardy if it follows Moscow
and Beijing, Washington has been unable to
formulate a coherent response to Andijan, with
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice saying that an
"international role" in investigating Andijan is
necessary, and according to a report in the
Washington Post US Defense Department officials
blocking a proposed demand from the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization, urged by Western European
states, including Britain, for an independent
investigation.
The bottom
line
With the underlying instability of the
Karimov regime revealed by the events in Andijan,
the parties to the new great game in Central Asia
have positioned themselves strictly in terms of
their perceived interests in the context of
uncertainty about the future.
Banking on
Karimov's ability to right his regime, Beijing and
Moscow pursue their aim of a strategic, economic
and increasingly ideological bloc in Central Asia.
Standing to benefit from the regime's collapse,
Brussels puts pressure on it. Cross-pressured by
conflicting policy aims, hardened into a conflict
between the State and Defense departments,
Washington seems to be unable to achieve a clear
reading of the priorities among its interests.
Published with permission of the Power and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into
various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed
to content@pinr.com |
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