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Cabinet squabbles as Putin floats
aloof
By Gregory Feifer
MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin is
often portrayed as an all-powerful leader guiding most
aspects of government policy. But how true is that
image? Political analysts casting around for the source
of Russian policy decisions often look past the
president's own views to those of the groups vying for
power within his administration.
Most cabinet
decisions are made quietly behind closed doors. But
sometimes disagreements between ministers and other top
officials spill over into public view - and the results
are carefully examined to help gauge the balance of
power within the presidential administration.
That was precisely the case when Prime Minister
Mikhail Kasyanov and Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin
recently traded public accusations about the course of
tax policy. The argument became apparent in March when a
simmering dispute over economic reform bubbled over. The
heavy-set, baritone-voiced Kasyanov accused the
bespectacled Kudrin of dragging his feet on tax reform,
saying proposed cuts - including a 2 percent decrease in
the value added tax to 18 percent - were too small.
The agitated prime minister abruptly cut short a
cabinet meeting before Kudrin's deputy was scheduled to
present a Finance Ministry report on the matter. Kudrin
in turn accused Kasyanov's staff of rewriting documents
that had already been approved by the cabinet. The
argument died down - in public, at least - last month,
when Kasyanov in the end approved Kudrin's proposals.
The respected Kommersant-vlast magazine wrote at
the time that the taxation scandal shows that "Putin's
management system is breaking down more and more often.
The president, to whom the constitution gives unlimited
power, is deliberately not making final decisions."
Another newspaper wrote this month that the government
is coming apart at the seams.
Many observers
agree the current Russian government is following a
traditional pattern of keeping the head of state above
the political and geographical fault lines that fragment
the rest of the administration. Vladimir Pribylovskii is
head of the Panorama think tank. Writing this month in
the Smysl journal, he identified four main groups of
political oligarchs in Russia, dubbed "clans".
One is the "Family," the remnants of the coterie
surrounding former president Boris Yeltsin, of which
Kasyanov is a leading member.
A second "St
Petersburg" group comprises chiefly liberal economic
reformers from the country's second city, which is also
Putin's home town. The group includes Kudrin, Economic
Development and Trade Minister German Gref - another to
face Kasyanov's wrath in recent months - and the
powerful power-utility boss Anatolii Chubais.
A
third group, also largely from St Petersburg, consists
of current and former security services agents
surrounding the president, who is himself a former KGB
spy. A fourth group is led by powerful Moscow Mayor
Yurii Luzhkov.
Pribylovskii told RFE/RL that the
positions of each clan are not always mutually exclusive
and that each member acts according to his own views and
role to various degrees. While Kudrin, Gref and others
are interested in defending certain principles, Chubais
and Kasyanov are chiefly motivated by maintaining their
influence.
"Kasyanov's position about lowering
taxes is in fact demagogic. It's no accident that he
kept defending his position, attacked Kudrin, and then
suddenly agreed to all Kudrin's proposals." Pribylovskii
said. As a result, he added, Kudrin comes out on top in
the tax standoff but will be held responsible if the tax
cut is later deemed either unnecessary or too small -
meaning a strategic victory for Kasyanov.
Pribylovskii said the Kasyanov-Kudrin
confrontation also reflected a clash between the
"Family" clan and the "St Petersburg" security-services
group. Kasyanov has recently also locked horns with the
Prosecutor-General's Office - seen as the domain of the
security services - after being declared wanted for
questioning over a scandal involving the distribution of
fishing quotas.
Dmitrii Orlov is deputy director
of the Center for Political Technologies. He agreed that
the Kudrin-Kasyanov standoff is both a matter of
clashing principles as well as an "inevitable"
confrontation between clans. "Kudrin represents the
'macroeconomic' bloc and has ties of his own to Putin,
whereas Kasyanov is a leader of the group traditionally
called the 'Family'. That's why their collision is
unavoidable. It's strange that it took place so long
after the government began its work," Orlov said.
Putin, meanwhile, allowed the argument to take
place but remained silent on the issue. Writing last
month in The Moscow Times, investigative journalist
Yulia Latynina said lying low is part of the president's
means of exercising power. She asked, "Is it conceivable
that Kasyanov would publicly and harshly criticize two
cabinet members - both of them part of the St Petersburg
clan to boot - entirely on his own initiative?"
While neither Kudrin nor Gref has suffered
formal consequences, Latynina writes, Kasyanov's public
rants against them are reminiscent of the Soviet era,
when "everyone spied on everyone else" and the head of
state appears to maintain control by acting as a
seemingly detached mediator.
Pribylovskii
agreed, but added that Putin has so much power he
doesn't "have to rely on intrigues - although maybe it's
easier for him to do it that way." Pribylovskii said
Kasyanov's spat with Kudrin - a possible future
candidate for the premiership - did not reflect personal
antagonism. To protect his position as prime minister,
Kasyanov must fend off regular attacks, and will likely
lock horns with other officials again later this year.
"I think such conflicts will surface again, but the
ideas themselves will not be the most important aspect,"
he said. "The most important thing is the battle between
groups, and the ideas used [in the fight] can be
completely different."
But if Putin allows
government officials to squabble about economic policy,
he retains the ultimate decisions over personnel policy.
Pribylovskii said it is not clear how much longer the
president will allow "Family" clan member Kasyanov to
remain prime minister.
Orlov of the Center for
Political Technologies agreed that the political futures
of Kasyanov and other top officials remain firmly in the
hands of the president. "Sooner or later, he'll have to
make a choice because public opinion demands that Putin
needs to be emancipated and needs to rid himself of
people tied to the figure of Yeltsin."
Orlov
said that Putin will likely sack Kasyanov after
presidential elections next March.
Copyright
(c) 2002, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington
DC 20036
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