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Secret meetings precede US-Russia
reconciliation
By Pavel Ivanov
On Monday US National Security Advisor
Condoleezza Rice suddenly appeared in Moscow for an
almost top-secret visit. No press conferences. No
statements. Just brief meetings with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and the two Ivanovs - Sergey, minister of
defense, and Igor, minister of foreign affairs. This
secrecy reflects the atmosphere and circumstances in
which Washington and Moscow have started mending fences
badly damaged by the war in Iraq.
Prince Gorchakov, one of the greatest Russian foreign
ministers of the 19th century, once said: "Secrecy in diplomacy
is needed just in two cases - when you are preparing
an alliance against a third party or when you simply
have nothing to say". It is almost insane even to think
about any "alliance against a third party" between the
White House and the Kremlin after what happened to
bilateral relations during the past three months. That
leaves the second option, which is quite plausible.
Moscow officials have little to say to their US
counterparts except for reiterating the well-known
Russian position on postwar reconstruction of Iraq: all
political, economic and humanitarian issues should be
conducted through the United Nations, particularly the
Security Council, where Russia has veto power. As of
today, brave talk by Tony Blair and George W Bush
notwithstanding, the US administration is quite
reluctant to consider any role for the UN other than as
an extension of humanitarian aid supervised by US/UK
occupation forces. So, obviously, secrecy is needed as
the two sides favor vastly different approaches to the
problems at hand and are not ready for any compromises.
A well-informed source in the Russian Ministry
of Foreign Affairs said of the Rice visit: "Certainly,
nobody expected any revolutionary breakthrough
agreements - it is too early to speak about agreements
... the Americans were just probing Russia's position on
the issues."
But in spite of the fact that at
present the sides have little to say to each other, the
continuation of the US-Russian political dialogue is a
positive, encouraging sign. Both sides need this
dialogue, although for different reasons.
The
Russian political leadership, most of all President
Putin, now realize very clearly that Moscow has already
lost its war regarding Iraq and it is time for damage
control. Putin and his entourage understand that Russian
economic interests in postwar Iraq are probably
irreversibly damaged, leaving Russia no means of
protecting them. However, by some humble estimates, the
cost might be just US$28 billion to $30 billion. Further
confrontation with Washington could cost much more in
every respect - the United States is capable of
inflicting massive damage on those that anger it. In
particular, there are three very sensitive areas where
Putin desperately needs help and support from his
American friend George.
One of the main foreign
policy goals of the Putin administration is Russia's
accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Negotiations on the issue have been moving ahead very
slowly, not because of the US position, but because of
the European Union's, notably Russia's partners in the
Iraqi war opposition - France and Germany, which dislike
Russia's energy and industry subsidy policies. By
contrast, after the US-Russia rapprochement that
followed the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001,
Washington threw its political weight behind Moscow's
bid for WTO membership, pushing forward talks that
otherwise would have taken more time to realize.
However, during the past two months, the White House has
been mum on the issue, and the WTO-Russia negotiations
are in effect stalled.
The second area of
concern to Putin is Russia's foreign debt. Most of it is
owed to EU members, not the United States. Over the past
two years, the US used its clout in Europe to reduce
Russia's outstanding debt. As a result, Moscow managed
to reach very favorable agreements on debt reduction
with Germany, Britain, Spain and Italy, which reduced
the debt by some $10 billion. Now the Kremlin fears that
the United States might withdraw its behind-the-scenes
support and that it will have to face the European
lenders alone.
The third very sensitive area of
Russian concern is the US military presence on the
territory of the former Soviet republics of Central
Asia. In accordance with the gentlemen's agreement
between the two presidents, Washington kept its military
presence in Uzbekistan to the minimum necessary level
required by military operations in Afghanistan - mainly
small logistics and technical units. Now the Kremlin
worries that its worst nightmare will come true and
full-fledged US military bases may be established just
few dozen miles away from Russia's soft southern
underbelly.
Present-day Russia has very little
leverage to influence US policies. Thus, like it or not,
the Russian leadership has to resume dialogue with Bush
- though Putin seems to understand very well that by
doing so he is risking a political uproar on the side of
opposition and essential sectors of the Russian
population, which is currently in a frenzied
anti-American campaign conducted by the country's mass
media.
The US needs dialogue, too, although to a
much lesser extent than Russia. The Bush administration
has already survived some quite embarrassing and
humiliating moments on the international scene created
by the united efforts of France, Germany and Russia and
the last thing Bush wants is to repeat this experience.
So it is quite logical to split the "new entente" and
bring Russia, which is definitely the weakest member,
back into the US orbit.
And there is something
much more important at stake for Washington in the
attempted reconciliation with Moscow. Assuming that the
invasion to topple Saddam Hussein is just an episode in
the larger, broader war the United States is conducting
against terrorism, Russia could be an instrumental and
important partner in future campaigns.
The
"almost top-secret visit" by Rice will likely serve as a
prelude to the restoration of partnership between the
two countries - likely to be confirmed when Bush (as now
planned) visits Moscow next month.
(©2003 Asia
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