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Erdogan courted in Beijing
By
Jean-Christophe Peuch
PRAGUE - As he did from
January 7-11, when he toured the Turkic former Soviet
republics of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leading an impressive delegation
to China with no fewer than 100 government officials and
businessmen. Erdogan's agenda includes talks with
Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji and Communist Party
leader Hu Jintao.
Although Erdogan holds no
official position in current Turkish state structures,
he is generally seen both at home and abroad as the man
pulling the strings of Prime Minister Abdullah Gul's
cabinet. Many Turkish analysts see Erdogan as the
county's next head of government after parliament late
last month overturned a constitutional ban barring him
from public office because of an earlier conviction for
alleged religious sedition.
Erdogan's Justice
and Development Party, or AKP, which is rooted in
Turkey's political Islam, won a landslide victory in the
November 3 elections amid Turkey's worst economic
recession since 1945.
Since then, Erdogan has
visited a long list of countries, China being only the
latest. Besides Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan,
he has also traveled to the United States and a number
of European capitals to lobby - unsuccessfully - for
Turkey's membership in the European Union.
Beijing has provided no details about the talks
expected between Erdogan and Chinese leaders. But
analysts believe Beijing may want to sound out its
Turkish visitor on a number of thorny issues.
Turkey and China established diplomatic ties in
1971, but relations over the past 30 years have been
uneasy, mainly because of Ankara's alleged support of
Uighurs, Muslim separatists in China's northwestern
Turkic Xinjiang Province.
Since China's
Communist Party came to power in 1949, Xinjiang has
witnessed a near-constant separatist struggle,
punctuated by several waves of street protests and
bombing campaigns. Chinese authorities have responded by
using ethnic cleansing, mass arrests, summary executions
and deportations to quell the separatist movement. In
the process, they have driven hundreds of thousands of
Uighurs away from their native region, mostly into
neighboring Central Asian states.
Under pressure
from Beijing, Ankara in February 2000 agreed to sign a
security cooperation agreement committing each signatory
to take measures against separatist activities affecting
the territorial integrity of the other side.
Despite the agreement, China has remained
suspicious of Turkey's ties with Xinjiang's
20-million-strong Uighur minority, a stance Zhu
reiterated on April 17, 2002 during a visit to Ankara.
It is unclear what, if anything, Erdogan can do during
his China visit to ease Beijing's concerns.
Timur Kocaoglu runs the Center for Strategic
Studies at Istanbul's Koc University. He told RFE/RL
that the Uighur issue is likely to tarnish
Chinese-Turkish relations for many years to come. "I
don't think Erdogan's visit to China will produce any
breakthrough in Turkish-Chinese relations, and I guess
[Turkish leaders] will have to make [the trip] to China
many more times to establish a sound relationship with
[Beijing], because there are problems between the two
countries, especially over the issue of the Turkic
population of Xinjiang," Kocaoglu said.
The AKP
has so far carefully avoided bringing forward any
religious issues on either its domestic or international
agenda.
Analysts believe the Chinese had more
reason for concern about Ankara's alleged support of its
Uighur minority under Turkey's previous government,
which included the far-right Nationalist Action Party of
Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli. But they say that
Beijing is still eager to sound out the new Turkish
leadership regarding its intentions toward Muslim
separatists in northwestern China.
Mehmet Ogutcu
is a Paris-based Turkish foreign policy analyst and a
specialist on China. He said that Beijing might be
concerned that Turkey will fail to stick to its official
commitment to cooperate in cracking down on Uighur
separatism, especially since China is not specifically
mentioned among the new Turkish cabinet's foreign policy
priorities.
"This [concern over where Turkey
stands on separatism] is related not only to Xinjiang
but also to Central Asia. Yet, the first impressions we
get from press reports and from the discussions [Erdogan
had] in Central Asia is that this government does not
have any intention [of providing] support or of
[declaring] support in any way to religious movements
there. They don't want religious issues to take the
forefront, and I think it needs to be seen in the longer
[term] to what extent this government will try to deal
with religious issues there. But certainly, from the
Chinese point of view, they will try to find out whether
Mr Erdogan's party could play a role in moderating
fundamentalist forces in the region," Ogutcu said.
Ogutcu said that China is also likely to probe Erdogan
on his stance on the Iraq crisis.
Although NATO
member Turkey has said it wants to do everything
possible to avoid military action against Baghdad, it
has very little leverage to influence Washington's
decision on this issue. Moreover, the United States sees
Turkey's military bases as a key element in the event of
a war with Iraq. "I think one important thing [Erdogan
will discuss in Beijing] is Iraq and the situation in
the Middle East. The Chinese are increasingly sensitive
to what is happening [there] because of their energy
concerns. Since 1993, China has become a net importer of
crude oil, and currently 30 percent of its oil
requirements [are met] by imports, mostly from the
Middle East. Chinese energy companies such as CNPC
[China National Petroleum Corporation] or Sinopec have
all invested in upstream petroleum fields in Iraq and
Sudan. They have increasing trade [relations] with Oman,
Saudi Arabia and Iran, some of them, according to press
reports, in return for weapons. So Turkey is a key
regional power to reckon with in this respect.
Therefore, [the Chinese] would like to have
consultations with Ankara on the future of the region,"
Ogutcu said.
Ogutcu said that other foreign
policy issues that might surface during Erdogan's visit
include Turkey's relations with Russia and energy
projects in the Caspian region. Ankara is involved in a
US-sponsored project to build a multibillion-dollar
pipeline that will eventually pump crude oil from the
Azerbaijani capital Baku to the Turkish Mediterranean
port of Ceyhan. Construction of the conduit is expected
to be completed by 2005.
The Baku-Ceyhan project
is in direct competition with China's planned pipelines
traveling from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Xinjiang
and from there to Shanghai.
Although this
circumstance may be grounds for further competition
between China and Turkey, it could also, paradoxically,
bring them closer on some issues.
Ogutcu argued
that the fact that both countries need stability in
Central Asia might help them reach a comprehensive
agreement on the Uighur issue. Turkey and China may also
have a common interest in undertaking joint regional
economic projects that may or may not exclude Russia, a
country both Turkey and China see as their primary rival
in Central Asia.
Kocaoglu, however, believes
that in the short term, Turkish-Chinese relations are
likely to focus on economic issues, first, because
Turkey's new leadership has yet to develop a clear
"political vision" for its foreign-policy agenda, and
second, because it sees domestic economic problems as
its top priority. "During talks the new AKP government
[has had] with various countries so far, economic issues
have [topped the agenda]. This government realizes that
they won a [landslide] victory and came to power [thanks
to] Turkey's economic problems. They are also aware that
economic issues can bring [them] down. So, their main
[concern] currently is how to solve Turkey's economic
problems and win the hearts of the people who voted for
them in the last election. And China is one of the big
markets that Turkey is after," Kocaoglu said.
Trade volume between the two countries shows a
clear imbalance in China's favor. Three years ago,
Turkey imported goods worth about $2 billion from China,
while the volume of Turkish exports to Beijing totaled
only $48 million. "In the economic [sphere], I think the
Turkish side will press very hard to correct the
existing imbalance. But I think they will have to come
up with some concrete proposals. It is not sufficient
just to insist to the Chinese that we should balance
trade relations. Currently, it is not only trade, but it
is also in the investment field [where the imbalance is
felt]. A lot of capital is [flowing out] of Turkey
toward China for joint manufacturing facilities being
established there, and Turkish commodities and products
are not so much diversified. And in textiles, there is
going to be a very fierce battle between Chinese and
Turkish producers after 2005 when the World Trade
Organization's [liberalization] agreement comes into
force. Therefore, there are a great number of areas for
talks between the two sides," Ogutcu said.
Ogutcu said that there is an urgent need for
strategic partnership between the two countries. Such an
arrangement, he said, will help Turkey "diversify its
international exposure" and not just "limit itself to
single-level interaction with the EU and the US". Yet,
Ogutcu cautioned, it may be some time before this
objective, which had been a stated goal of past Turkish
decision makers, can be achieved. "Steps have already
been taken, but there is still a long way to go before
both sides could fully trust each other. Also, China has
some preferences, for example in the Middle East. It
might prefer to work with Iran as a bridgehead to
project its power to the Middle East of the [Persian]
Gulf region, or with Iraq, Oman, Sudan, or Libya. They
are developing some relationships there. Being an ally
of the US and [having] close relations with the EU,
Turkey, in this regard, is not a natural partner for
China," Ogutcu said.
But nevertheless, Ogutcu
said that Turkey should not delay further attempts to
boost its relations with Beijing in order to be ready in
2020, when China is likely to become, as he put it, "the
world's leading economic power". "In the case of China,
we all know that patience and perseverance are needed,"
he said. "Therefore, Turkey needs to work now to develop
a strategic partnership with China."
Copyright (c) 2002, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted
with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
20036
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