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Russia gains first Mediterranean oil
outlet
By John Helmer
MOSCOW
- As Russia's crude oil production for 2003 is forecast
to continue this year's growth, outstripping domestic
demand, and the Kremlin remains unconvinced and
undecided on major new export outlets, a new agreement
to open a pipeline to the Croatian port of Omisalj has
been made, with a minimum of controversy.
According to Sergei Grigoryev, vice-president of
Transneft, the state pipeline operator, "realization of
this project will not require any large-scale
investments in the Russian part of the pipeline, but
some other countries, particularly Croatia, will have to
invest [the largest part]".
The project
announcement, issued on Monday by the governments of
Russia, Croatia, Belarus, Slovakia and Hungary, will
require Croatia to spend US$19 million to reverse the
flow of the pipeline between Omisalj to the terminal
town of Sisak. Another $320 million in investment is
projected to triple the existing capacity of the
Druzhba-Adria pipeline network, so that shipments can
jump from 5 to 15 million tonnes per annum. The project
has been in negotiation for two years. Agreement was
made possible by the decision of Ukraine to accept a
tariff of $0.64 per tonne per 100 kilometers, 12 percent
below the current pipeline tariff being charged across
Ukrainian territory.
This is the first
transportation agreement enabling Russian oil to reach
the Mediterranean without having to pass the Turkish
straits. Russians are being squeezed by the government
in Ankara, which prefers to concentrate oil flows
through the planned new pipeline from Baku, Azerbaijan,
to Ceyhan. Another Russian alternative, involving a
tanker shuttle across the Black Sea to Burgas, Bulgaria,
and a pipeline from there to Alexandropoulos, Greece, is
stalled in negotiations that have now lasted more than
five years.
Transneft is proving to be a tough
defender of its pipeline monopoly inside Russia; tougher
indeed than Russia's oil majors have anticipated. While
the oil producers want the Kremlin to agree to support
and help finance pipeline routes to Murmansk, on the
Barents Sea, and to Daqing, in northern China, Transneft
is objecting, arguing that the costs do not justify
either the outlays, or the market forecasts.
However, the Croatian outlet, Grigoriev told
Asia Times Online, is unobjectionable. "Five million
tonnes per year to begin with is not a large volume of
exports, but this route opens access to the US market
for Russian oil companies. This project will not lead to
any changes on other routes operated by Transneft. It
will only expand Russian export capacities by using a
new route."
Yukos, Tyumen Oil Company and
Rosneft are reported to be the first Russian oil
producers to aim to ship through Omisalj to the US.
Yukos - which this year also acquired the Slovak
pipeline operator Transpetrol - is likely to dispatch 5
million tonnes of oil for shipping out of Omisalj;
Tyumen Oil Company 2.5 million tonnes.
Dmitri
Panteleyev, spokesman for Rosneft, said that his company
has signed a memorandum of understanding with Marathon
Oil for shipments to the US. "This is not a contract,"
he said, "so it doesn't specify the volumes of possible
deliveries, but the letter says that deliveries are to
start some time in 2003. When we will be discussing the
volumes and exact routes for deliveries, we will
probably pay special attention to Omisalj."
Sergei Lukyanov, an industry analyst in Moscow,
told Asia Times Online that "Yukos and probably other
oil companies are now trying to establish themselves as
suppliers of oil to the US. In order to do that, they
have to have one or two shipments per month to the US.
Omisalj port is perfect for supplies to the US, as it
enables the companies to use larger tankers."
Russian tanker companies say that they don't
expect to be favored for shipments out of Omisalj. Yukos
has been trialling shipments from the Murmansk roadstead
using tankers from Novorossiysk Shipping Company, but
none of the Russian tanker operators has the very large
crude carriers (VLCCs) that are likely to be used from
Omisalj. According to Panteleyev of Rosneft, "Deliveries
to the US will be considered later, including whether we
will use services of Russian tanker companies or not.
Until now, Rosneft has not made any trial oil deliveries
to the US."
Igor Borisenko, deputy general
director of Sovcomflot, Russia's leading tanker
operator, said that the Russian fleet doesn't have VLCCs
because "analysis shows that these are very problematic
vessels from the point of view of investment. Often the
performance of VLCC tankers is close to loss-making, and
there are not many cases when VLCC vessels are used very
effectively." He said that negotiations are under way
with Yukos and LUKoil for long-term tanker contracts
that include US deliveries. But he added, "I don't think
there will be any privileges given to Russian shipping
companies."
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
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