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Georgia and
Russia square off
By Hooman
Peimani
As Georgian troops began their
"anti-terrorist" operation in the Pankissy Valley last
week, an alleged Russian air strike against a village in
the valley made Georgian-Russian uneasy relations
dangerously hostile. In reference to the incident,
Georgian President Edward Sheverdnadzhe demanded an
apology from Russia to normalize damaged relations,
while the Georgian ambassador to the United Nations
accused that country of state terrorism. The sudden
escalation of hostility between the two neighboring
countries reflects the growing sense of insecurity of
Russia since the deployment of American "military
advisers" in Georgia. It also indicated Georgia's
increasing boldness in its relations with Russia,
stemming from its expanding military relations with the
United States, a growing power in the Caucasus and
Central Asia.
Georgian-Russian ties have
experienced troubles since the fall of the Soviet Union
and the independence of Georgia in 1991. In particular,
two issues have contributed to conflicts. One has been
the Georgian government's bid to forge close relations
with Western countries, particularly with the United
States, at the expense of weakening Russia's influence
in its country. Its alleged ties with the Chechen armed
groups seeking independence of Chechnya from Russia has
been another source of irritation as the Russian
government has accused its Georgian counterpart of
tolerating Chechen rebels who have sought refuge in
Georgia's Pankissy Valley, neighboring its Republic of
Chechnya. They have allegedly used their Georgian bases
to conduct military operations against Russian forces
stationed in Chechnya.
Despite their
disagreements on Russia's claim on the Georgian
government's implicit collaboration with the Chechen
rebels, both Georgia and Russia agree that the Pankissy
Valley has become a refugee for Chechen armed groups
fleeing the Russian military. However, the Georgian
government blames Russia's second round of military
operations against the Chechens for their escape to that
region, an operation still in progress after three years
of its launching. Thus, the Georgian government denies
any role in Chechens seeking refugee inside its
territory, as it also denies its tolerance of their
presence. Its inadequate military capability to monitor
its border with Russia and to remove any illegal armed
group from its territory has been its explanation for
such presence.
That these two sides should be
making accusations against each other regarding the
Chechen armed groups is not a new phenomenon, but last
week's escalation of their conflict was a definitely new
development arising from a significant change in the
Caucasus since the initiation of the American war on
terrorism. Earlier this year, the Georgian government
accepted the deployment of American "military advisers"
in its territory to help it train its forces for
"counter-terrorist" operations, including those against
the Chechen groups with alleged links to al-Qaeda.
Coming to Georgia in the wake of Russia's initial
acceptance of an American military presence in Central
Asia to assist the US military operations in
Afghanistan, the Russians did not react harshly to the
development, despite their obvious concern about the
deployment of American military personnel along their
southern border. On the contrary, they sought to
downplay its significance and to find an even positive
impact in future expected Georgian anti-terrorist
operations on Russia's "anti-terrorist" war in Chechnya.
Against this background, Georgian and Russian
military preparations to deal with "terrorists" in the
Pankissy Valley have created a very dangerous and
unstable situation. The Russians, who had long blamed
Georgia for tolerating Chechen armed groups, deployed
their military forces along their border with Georgia
last week. They hinted at their determination to deal
with the threat of valley-based Chechens in the absence
of the alleged Georgian government's resolution to
tackle the problem. The Georgian government also
deployed its American-trained troops around the valley
last week and began its "anti-terrorist" operation
against the valley's armed groups.
Given the
history of their conflicts, the two sides' concentration
of troops on both sides of the Pankissy Valley has
created a fragile situation prone to escalation. This is
a feasible scenario due to an increasing concern in
Russia about insecurity, and particularly about the
growing American military presence along its southern
borders. The fragile situation characterized with a
sentiment of suspicion and mistrust on both sides could
provoke a confrontation between the two neighbors at the
time when sporadic low level military operations
launched by "unknown forces" have angered both the
Georgians and the Russians.
Last week, Georgia
protested over an alleged Russian air strike against a
village in the valley. While Russia has denied
responsibility, Georgia has referred to the reports of
Georgian and American military experts and that of
European observers to support its claim. In the same
week, the firing of "unknown" forces on a Russian border
post left two Russian soldiers wounded. The Russian
military put the blame on Georgian forces, although they
denied responsibility and attributed the incident to
Chechen armed groups.
Last weeks' sudden
escalation of conflict between Georgia and Russia
reflected the beginning of Russia's reaction to the
expansion of American forces along its borders. In
particular, it demonstrated its growing concern over its
gradual encirclement by hostile countries hosting
American military forces. Their existence has surely
made their host, including Georgia, more confident and
more assertive in their dealings with Russia, a nuclear
power highly vulnerable to foreign security threats
because of its numerous domestic problems, including
economic, political and military ones.
Dr
Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant
with international organizations in Geneva and does
research in international relations
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