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Bait and switch in Russia?
As a loyal and longtime friend, there are suspicions Dmitry Medvedev, who becomes president of Russia on Wednesday, will be a puppet while the outgoing Vladimir Putin continues to pull the strings, perhaps even standing aside early to allow Putin to return to the presidency. (May 7, '08)

 Medvedev sworn in (AFP) 

Energized Iran builds more bridges
In terms of whom it conducts its energy business with, Iran keeps all its options open, and it will not allow itself to be pushed out of the European market as exports are the bridge that will facilitate its all-round integration with the Western world. Tehran's hectic diplomatic activity in this regard has put the "Iran Six" countries dealing with its nuclear dossier on the defensive: none of them wants confrontation with Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 5, '08)

Legal bills leave Tajikistan in the cold

As poverty-stricken Tajikistan emerges from a bitter winter and its hospitals look forward to more regular power supplies, its government is running up a US$100 million bill to a London legal firm. The money may be keeping the lawyers happy, but judges hearing their arguments are less than satisfied. - John Helmer (Apr 29, '08)

China caught in potash crunch
China has found that its market muscle counts for little when it comes to buying the fertilizer essential to maintain its output of rice and other crops. New contract terms more than doubled the price it pays for shipments from Russia, and competition with other consumers is set to intensify. Suppliers, meanwhile, are seeing their share prices soar. - John Helmer (Apr 21, '08)

Iran homes in on the Caspian
With United States and United Nations sanctions escalating the pressures on Iran, particularly in the Middle East and Persian Gulf, Tehran is seeking an outlet for trade and investment in the Caspian region, luring potential partners with lucrative production-sharing agreements. If only the littoral states could agree among themselves. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 16, '08)

BOOK REVIEW
Beyond the statue's cold frown
Young Stalin by Simon Sebag Montefiore
The early years of Joseph Stalin make for an exotic tale. Widowed at 22, Stalin's heart turned to socialism and he soon grew into a gangster chief, a four-time political exile and a talented poet. In evocative prose, Montefiore casts new light on a man whose name is a byword for ruthless and dictatorial government and at the same time adds depth and context to a dominant 20th century leader. - Fraser Newham (Apr 11, '08)

The Taliban's shadow hangs over NATO
Following the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit and the meet between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President George W Bush, the Russians say they were "defeated": the US's missile defense shield in Europe and NATO's expansion will go ahead. This is a smokescreen. By Moscow agreeing to the transit of food and non-military cargo and "some types of non-lethal military equipment" across Russia to Afghanistan, Russia now has a role in NATO's operations in Afghanistan. -
M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 7, '08)

Russia's WTO hopes on borderline
Russia is nearing the conclusion of a 15-year effort to join the World Trade Organization - perhaps. As talks near their final stages, concerns ranging from timber tariffs to security issues threaten to drag things out even further, in spite of the benefits membership would bring to all parties. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi and
Natalia Gold (Apr 7, '08)


Russia challenges US in the Islamic world
For the second year in a row, Russia this month attended the annual summit of the Organization of Islamic Conference as an observer. This signals Moscow's active extension of its involvement in the Middle East by directly challenging the US's traditional dominance of the region. The "peace dividend" of this growing friendship with the Islamic world also translates into hard dollars - from mega projects in Egypt and Saudi Arabia - under the US's nose - to renewed oil interests in Iraq. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 28, '08)

IMF blows whistle on Tajik corruption

The International Monetary Fund this month revealed that the National Bank of Tajikistan and the Finance Ministry have been fiddling the country's accounts and concealing the disappearance of millions of dollars of international loan funds. Yet the Asian Development Bank continued to approve loans even as the IMF said the country had breached its financial obligations. - John Helmer (Mar 25, '08) 

SEX IN DEPTH
My short time with Tito
It all started innocently enough: a simple research outing to uncover the underworld of Western sex workers in Asia. But then, at the unsubtle urging of an over-bulked Baltic bouncer named Tito, the venture became a tour of the sex trade "circuit". What came out was the naked truth about organized crime, immigration, sex and the story behind some of Asia's most notorious ports of call girls.
William Sparrow writes a weekly column looking at issues relating to sex in Asia. (Mar 20, '08)

Medvedev holds key to WTO
Dmitry Medvedev's ascension to power in Russia heralds a new opportunity for resolution of differences that bar the way to the country joining the World Trade Organization. Yet even if membership remains elusive, internal debate on the issues involved have proved an innovative experience in democratic discussion on an important issue of national economic policy. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi and Natalia Gold (Mar 20, '08)

Guns? Not me says Viktor Bout
Viktor Bout, the 41-year-old Russian businessman being held on "terrorism charges" in Bangkok for conspiring to sell "millions of dollars worth of weapons" to Colombian guerillas, is innocent, his lawyer vehemently claims. His reputation for selling guns, guns, guns is being disarmed by his legal team, which says any attempts to extradite Bout to Guantanamo Bay or elsewhere are based only on "blah blah blah". - Richard S Ehrlich (Mar 18, '08)

Russia throws a wrench in NATO's works
President Vladimir Putin has made the North Atlantic Treaty Organization an offer it will find extremely difficult to resist - making Russia a participant in the alliance's Afghan mission. The pressure is now on the United States to embrace the idea of Russia becoming a transit route for supplies going to Afghanistan. The trouble is, Washington knows Moscow will incrementally want a bigger role for itself and its allies in Afghanistan, and those allies include China. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 14, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
Relax and float south stream
The decision by three Central Asian energy exporters to charge Gazprom a higher rate for gas it then channels to Europe looks like a severe blow to the Russian company. But US and European hopes that they might secure some independence from Russia at the other end of the supply chain increasingly look like wishful thinking. - Pepe Escobar(Mar 13, '08)

China puts its trust in Putinism

More than any other capital in the world, Beijing has closely observed the changing of the guard in the Kremlin. And the Chinese know that with or without President Vladimir Putin, it is only natural for Russia to continue its current policies. There's therefore still work to be done on the Sino-Russian relationship. - Yu Bin (Mar 12, '08)

Russia lays new tracks in Korean ties
The new administrations coming into the Kremlin in Moscow and Seoul's presidential Blue House, together with a new generation of leaders in Pyongyang, can radically change the political climate in the region and help resolve the peninsula's nuclear problem. - Leonid Petrov (Mar 4, '08)

Medvedev ready for his Russian moment 
Judging by his record, the presumptive next president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, can be expected to pursue a concerted liberalization of politics as the next logical stage in the country's evolution. He aims to make business in Russia the most profitable in the world. And in foreign policy, the likely leitmotif is that security will be enhanced when countries share risk - that is, the West and Russia should cooperate.
-
Nicolai N Petro (Feb 29, '08)

BOOK REVIEW

From local fight to global struggle
Russia's Islamic Threat by Gordon M Hahn
Although the Chechen war started as a nationalistic exploit, with the desire to liberate Chechens from Russia and build an independent state, it has transformed itself into a jihadi movement with global appeal.
- Dmitry Shlapentokh (Feb 29, '08)

Chess takes the world on board
Russians still dominate competitive chess, but not like they did in the Soviet era when Joseph Stalin decreed national excellence. Today the reigning world champ is from India, the world's top junior is Egyptian and some of the most promising prodigies are from China, where the Soviets' decidedly political approach to the game has been adopted. (Feb 27, '08)

Look who's digging for gold in Myanmar
A Russian signatory to an agreement to prospect for gold in northeast Myanmar, witnessed by the Russian ambassador to the country, has a name disconcertingly similar to that of a fraudster in a story written by a former gulag prisoner. Coincidence perhaps, but it's about as much as there is to work on in this mysterious business. - John Helmer (Feb 27, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
Russia gas pact energizes Iran
A deal that will expand Gazprom's interest in Iran's South Pars gas field and involve daughter company Gazpromneft in an oil project in the country underlines Tehran's expanding role in the region's energy sector and the immunity of Russian gas companies from sanctions emanating from the United States. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 26, '08)

Black, white knights eye Kazakh banks
Kazakhstan's banks, vaults once stacked with oil and mining money, now owe international lenders US$12 billion and counting. Their plight is attracting takeover proposals by foreign rivals, and warnings that the government might grab some stakes. History suggests that the latter could be a good, and maybe revolutionary, idea. - Charles van der Leeuw (Feb 13, '08)

Japan covets Russian gas, hot air
Japan, keen to be a leader in creating a successor to the Kyoto Protocol and struggling to meet its goals under the existing deal, wants to buy greenhouse gas credits from Russia as a way towards hitting the targets. Natural gas from its northern neighbor will also come in handy. - Hisane Masaki (Feb 13, '08) 

Kazakhstan unveils new energy directions
Kazakhstan, which has halted negotiations with foreign investors interested in extracting its natural resources pending a new tax code, wants to become more assertive as a key player in the Central Asian energy sector. To succeed, it will have to contend with variables beyond its control. - Robert M Cutler (Feb 12, '08)

Mittal mines a Russian mystery
India's Lakshmi Mittal, who humbled Russia's Alexei Mordashov in a battle to buy Europe's largest steelmaker, Arcelor, has handed his old foe something in the region of US$700 million for coal-mining assets in Russia. There is no clear reason why. - John Helmer (Feb 1, '08)

Russian turbulence for Indian airbase
An Indian military outpost in Tajikistan was expected to irritate Islamabad and Beijing, not Moscow. Russia's pressure, which has led to the project being stalled, is a wake-up call for India's big-power dreams and a reminder to Delhi that it can't expect a strategic beachhead in Central Asia if it continues to pursue close ties with the Americans. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jan 31, '08)

Envoy's belly dancer bares all
At age 26, Nadira Alieva has already seemingly lived several lifetimes - most of them sordid. The Uzbek daughter of a drug and alcohol-addicted actor, a rape victim and former Tashkent pole dancer, she was "rescued" by a British ambassador who left his wife and diplomatic career for her. She's currently telling her story in a solo performance in London, and she has her eyes on Hollywood. (Jan 24, '08)

Cover off Tajikistan's missing millions
UK court proceedings this year are expected to expose dealings involving Tajikistan aluminum company Talco and missing money worth up to US$500 million a year. The heaings may also raise questions on why World Bank and other officials support financing for the man who dominates Talco's business dealings, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon. - John Helmer
(Jan 10, '08)


COMMENT
The three Rs: Rivalry, Russia and 'Ran
The declining United States-Russia relationship (and that of Europe and Russia) does not occur in a strategic vacuum. If the US wants to calm Iran's nuclear ambitions, it is going to need to brush up on its diplomatic basics. This means that Moscow has to be convinced its long-term interests are best served by full-fledged cooperation with the West. - Robert D Blackwill (Jan 10, '08)

SPENGLER

Putin for president ...
of the United States

Forget Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. There's still time to amend the constitution, naturalize him as a citizen and elect the only sensible choice for the next US president - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. He has restored Russia's battered economy and global stature and he used a divide-and-conquer strategy to subdue Chechnya. His ruthless means are worthy of Cardinal Richelieu and the US could do a lot worse. (Jan 7, '08)

Russia, Iran tighten the energy noose
It has been a triumphant year for Moscow in its energy rivalry with the US, trumping at every turn Washington's efforts to promote Western interests from the Caspian to Central Asia. At the heart of the struggle in 2008 will be Iran, Europe's only serious option for diversifying its energy imports. But already, Moscow is drawing Tehran more tightly into its embrace. A successful union would give the couple control of roughly 20% of world's oil reserves and close to half of the world's gas reserves. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 21, '07)

Russia's east warms to China
A cultural shift is taking place in easternmost Russia, and it's not what Moscow fears. It's not the massive influx of unwanted Chinese long predicted in the press, but a more subtle and unexpected "Sino-ization" of ethnic Russians who are increasingly turning towards China as a land of tolerance and opportunity. - Dmitry Shlapentokh (Dec 14, '07)

Putin's choice: Charm could be unlucky
Vladimir Putin's endorsement of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as the official Kremlin candidate for the upcoming presidential elections  will charm Western powers (Medvedev, formerly the head of Gazprom, is reportedly a Black Sabbath fan) and Beijing. But he's virtually an unknown as far Russia's old ally India is concerned, and the charm could wear thin soon. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 13, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
The birth of Russia's new energy class
A new class of people has emerged under President Vladimir Putin based on the shared interest in and ownership of the state's energy resources. This group, comprising the security services, politicians and the business elite, will obtain a decisive advantage by promoting the measures necessary to defend their common interests. - Justin Dargin (Dec 5, '07)

 
 
 

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