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Bulgaria at the crossroads
of Euro-Caspian energy plans
Competing projects
to transport Caspian gas to Europe have put Bulgaria center stage, with US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a recent visitor, sending her Special Envoy
for Eurasian Energy on a follow-up trip next week - just when Alexei Miller, CEO
of Russian gas giant Gazprom, will also be in the country. - Robert M
Cutler (Feb 9, '12)
Pipelines enter post-Nabucco era
For more than a decade, Nabucco was the only
pipeline project planned to transport Caspian gas to the European Union. Now
Azerbaijan holds the main cards, with cash reserves to build a pipeline that
Europe seems unable to finance, and coherent planning that eludes the Europeans.
- Vladimir Socor (Feb 9, '12)
The Russian winter of
discontent
With Moscow's faith in Washington's "reset" shattered by the Libyan bombing
campaign, Russia is accelerating a pivot towards Northeast Asia. China is the
important partner in economic and foreign affairs, while regional allies are
needed to help extract vital gas supplies from the East Siberian permafrost.
However, the key piece to the Eurasian puzzle is North Korea. - Yong Kwon
(Feb 9, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
NATO's not so smart initiative
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has launched a trust fund project to
secure or destroy hidden weapons and munitions in Tajikistan. The first
initiative in a move to low-cost support , it should mark a breakthrough in
multilateral cooperation, but budgetary constraints and commitments in
Afghanistan are making the "smart defense" initiative anything but a reality. - Emanuele
Scimia (Feb 8, '12)
Confidence in Nabucco fades
Backers of the Nabucco project, with a decision imminent by Azerbaijan on which
pipeline to match with the Shah Deniz gas field, are belatedly seeking to take
a gas-producing company on board. That may not be enough to rescue the
increasingly costly European project. - Vladimir Socor
(Feb 7, '12)
Aral Sea challenge to
Kazakhstan
Successful development of oil projects in the Uzbek region of the Aral Sea may
make the sector more attractive than Kazakhstan's Caspian oil and gas fields.
But modest achievements to date suggest Russia's increased interest is largely
political. - Farkhad Sharip (Feb 6, '12)
Hidden hand, clean hand in
Russian politics
Over seven decades after Joseph Stalin's Great Purge, his star is rising,
particularly among younger Russians for whom the dictator is a symbol of strong
and clean hands. Most Russians suspect the hands of everyone contending for
political power to be hidden, weak and corrupt. Russians think they can grasp
what Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's hands can do - and are loathe to trust the
devils they don't know. - John Helmer (Feb 3,
'12)
Echoes of war across the South
Caucasus
As the drums of war against Iran grow ever louder, the beat echoes in the South
Caucasus, where Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have compelling - albeit vastly
different - reasons for fearing conflict in the Persian Gulf; a confluence of
regional events could lead to "a potentially explosive situation". - Nicholas
Clayton (Feb 2, '12)
Smaller 'stans fret at
Russia's dominance
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, keen to ease away from Russian economic and
political domination, recognize potential alternative sources for the imported
oil on which they depend. International and regional obstacles, such as United
States sanctions and water-supply disputes, stand in the way. - Fozil Mashrab
(Feb 1, '12)
Russia's gold loses luster
The outlook for Russia's goldminers should be bright, yet such is Chinese-led
demand for gold, the metal's price is no longer a stable hedge but moves in
line with the value of everything in the emerging marketplace. Add in the
domestic political risk, and the miners' shares lose much of their luster. - John
Helmer (Feb 1, '12)
Russian oil slick for Croatia
The role of Croatia, the European Union's latest member, in the EU's energy
security framework may already be undermined by Russia, thanks to proposed
projects worth US$1.5 billion between Croatian government-controlled oil
company JANAF and Russia's Zarubezhneft. - Vladimir Socor
(Jan 31 '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
Moscow populism and the Great
Game
As the scale of rallies against Vladimir Putin suggests that Russia's political
life is on the cusp of change - and with it, the emergence of alternative
visions of power projection in Central Asia. Any rollback would give the
American leadership more room to hatch favorable deals in the region, and allow
China to expand its horzons too. - Uran Bolush
(Jan 30'12)
Uzbek success misses
population
Significant exports of gas lend some support to Uzbek President Islam Karimov's
claims that his country's economy is growing strongly. Yet amid the general
population, the norm is shortages of fuel - even gas - and electricity, as
exports earn more than domestic sales. - Deirdre Tynan
(Jan 30'12)
Southern gas corridor grows
more complex
Signals from Azerbaijan that the building of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline
(TAGP) will allow Baku to fill the Nabucco pipeline without the need for
Turkmen supplies complicate the picture for southern Europe's energy corridor
plans. TAGP gives Turkey the means to transit Azerbaijani gas to Europe without
being bound by the rules of the larger project. - Robert M Cutler
(Jan 26, '12)
An Uzbek struggle in name only
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan began intent on overthrowing the "apostate"
regime of Islam Karimov. As its list of martyrs for 2011 shows, a decade later
its focus and composition have shifted to Afghanistan and Pakistan and in line
with Taliban aims - such that it is Uzbek in name only. - J Z Adams
(Jan 24, '12)
Kashagan costs surge
Developing Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan oil fields was always going to be
tough, but Western energy companies are now seeking a 22% increase in the
development budget to double the initial estimate. The project's profitability
may soon come into doubt. - Robert M Cutler (Jan
20, '12)
Atambayev's Turkish affair needs
domestic peace for success
Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev's visit to Turkey, rather than Russia, as
his first official overseas call indicates a determination to build trade and
attract investment rather than suffer mere superpower thraldom. To succeed, he
must also foster political stability and economic transparency at home. - Fozil
Mashrab (Jan 19, '12)
Kazakhstan stirs terror nests
Terror group Jund al-Khilafa's swift response to a clampdown by Kazakhstan
President Nursultan Nazarbayev on a rising undercurrent of Jihadi-Salafist
sentiment signals that the 
Kazakh regime must tread carefully to avoid provoking small cells from striking
again. Laws to thwart religious freedom could end up a propaganda boon for the
group's leaders, who claim from their base on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border
to have fighters "ready to be killed in the thousands" to defend their creed. - Jacob
Zenn (Jan 19, '12)
BOOK REVIEW
How Imperial Russia wooed Asia
Russia's own Orient: The politics of identity and Oriental studies in the
Imperial and early Soviet periods by Vera Tolz
When Russia launched Oriental studies amid its imperial decline, it sought to
emulate the West. However, the glamorous image of the downtrodden at the time
led minorities to be treated as equals rather than subjects, a wild contrast
from the West's approach. Using a wealth of research this book outlines how
this impacted positively on ethnic policy after the Bolshevik Revolution -
until the regime needed to consolidate power. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(Jan 13, '12)
Ukraine alone in Russia gas
talks
The European Union is again letting Ukraine stand alone as it battles to secure
lower-priced gas from Russia, whose Gazprom is now increasingly likely to
muscle in on Kiev's plans for a consortium to upgrade and run Ukraine's gas
pipeline network. - Pavel Korduban (Jan 13,
'12)
THE GREAT GAS RACE
Turkey plays paltry hand
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's effusive thanks for "a wonderful Christmas
gift" after Ankara agreed to Russia building the South Stream gas pipeline
through Turkey's Black Sea exclusive economic zone were well justified. Little
was asked by Turkey in return - and Ukraine may no longer believe in Santa. - Vladimir
Socor (Jan 12, '12)
This concludes a two-part report
Part 1: Gazprom
races for EU loophole
Pyongyang to preserve Kim for
posterity
Kim Jong-il's passing in December could be good news for Russia's "Lenin
laboratory" of embalmers, which has preserved dead communist leaders ranging
from Joseph Stalin to Ho Chi Minh. Lacking work lately, the team would happily
construct a glass coffin for the North Korean Dear Leader in Kumsusan memorial
palace, possibly adjacent to his father's. However, reports suggest the
mummification will be done domestically. - Andrei Lankov
(Jan 11, '12)
Kazakh riot town to vote
Citizens in the Kazakh oil town of Zhanaozen, focus of a bitter strike and
where possibly close to 50 people were killed as riots were quelled last month,
will be allowed to vote in parliamentary elections on Sunday following a
surprise turnaround by President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
- Christopher Pala (Jan 11, '12)
EUROPE AND SOUTH STREAM, Part 1
Gazprom races for EU loophole
Russia's decision to bring forward the construction start date for Gazprom's
South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea has little to do with securing early
completion. A late-2012 start may be enough to stymie European Union
legislation that would limit Gazprom's role in Europe. - Vladimir Socor
(Jan 11, '12)
The is the first article in a two-part report.
Afghan rail link marks
a
break-out moment
Afghanistan's entry to the modern railway age is a modest 75-kilometer line
from the border with Uzbekistan to Mazar-e-Sharif, yet it could mark the start
of the transformation of the country's internal trade and its relations with
Central Asia and the rest of the world. - Fozil Mashrab
(Jan 10, '12)
Anatolia gas pipeline races
towards reality
Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's decision to bring forward construction
of the Black Sea South Stream pipeline adds urgency to a project that has no
gas to supply it and no purchase commitments. In contrast, Azerbaijan and
Turkey move the up-to-US$9 billion Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline, also targeting
Europe, ever closer to actuality. - Robert M Cutler
(Jan 4, '12)
The Rogun juggernaut
Tajikistan's Rogun dam and hydro-power project is supposedly on hold pending
the results of World Bank-sponsored assessments of its likely impact - even as
the bank risks its credibility by throwing its weight behind power transmission
links with Afghanistan that depend on the dam's construction. Uzbekistan, for
one, senses double dealing. - Fozil Mashrab (Jan
3, '12)
Putin piles on Arctic pressure
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is showing increasing aggressiveness in
the Arctic as the Kremlin prepares to present this year its claims to disputed
territory in the region to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the
Continental Shelf. Oil-related deals underline the value of the stakes at risk.
- Stephen Blank (Jan 3, '12)
 THE
ROVING EYE
Playing chess in Eurasia
As Pipelineistan and hardcore geopolitics collide across Eurasia, China and
Russia are coordinating policy in fine detail. The trick is connecting China to
Central and South Asia and the Gulf, creating an economic/security powerhouse
that controls 50% of the world's gas reserves and undercuts the United States'
Empire of Bases. Old Europe wants in, but it may be locked out. The US,
meanwhile, is watching as its New Silk Road vision crumbles. - Pepe Escobar
(Dec 21, '11)
Azerbaijan - the crucible
for
Eurasia's energy brew
Azerbaijan is the crucible where Central Eurasia's energy geo-economics will be
resolved - whether Turkmenistan will join it in driving Euro-Caspian
consolidation one vital element in the mix. As Turkey, China and others circle,
there is one certainty - Russia will continue to try to keep Europe boxed in as
its own private cash cow. - Robert M Cutler (Dec
21, '11)
Bhagavad Gita to hot for
Russia
A ban on the Bhagavad Gita by a Moscow court that judged the sacred
Hindu religious text guilty of advocating war and spreading social discord has
vexed the Russian capital's 15,000-strong Indian community and the Hare Krishna
movement. With Indian luminaries and parliamentarians rushing into the
brouhaha, scholars say they cannot fathom why the transcendental teachings
should be branded "extremist literature". - Neeta Lal
(Dec 20, '11)
Rising terror group exploits
Kazakh unrest
Riots in western Kazakhstan by striking oil workers have raised uncertainty
over the stability of President Nursultan Nazarbayev's regime amid an
intensifying terror campaign by the Jund al-Khilafah against his "anti-Muslim"
religious policies. While ongoing protests are unrelated to the JaK, the
group's use of them to highlight Nazarbayev's excesses has struck a chord with
Kazakhs who don't share JaK's radical agenda. - Jacob Zenn
(Dec 20, '11)
'Alternative' fuel key to
survival in Central Asia
The onset of winter is forcing people of Central Asia to make important
decisions on how they are going to keep warm and cook food in the months ahead.
When soaring fuel prices and electricity rationing rule out normal sources of
power, dried cow dung or coal powder mixed with sheep manure are keys to
survival. - Farangis Najibullah (Dec 15, '11)
A new ARMZ race
The road to a Russian monopoly on uranium - led by AtomRedMetZoloto - leads
through Mongolia. The end point is the Mayak spent nuclear fuel processing
plant, in the Urals - which earned yet another snub last month when the Swiss
nuclear energy authority joined the list of countries declining to send spent
fuel there due to environmental concerns. - Peter Lee
(Dec 12, '11)
Caspian pact remains elusive
A treaty binding the Caspian's five littoral states on how to share the inland
sea's spoils remains elusive. A security agreement of sorts is in place, but
with sturgeon remaining too slippery to agree on, the issue of a Trans-Caspian
pipeline at present puts a convention well out of reach. - Sergei Blagov
(Dec 14, '11)
Georgia plans grand new port
Georgian President President Mikheil Saakashvili says he will build the
country's second-biggest city from scratch within the next 10 years, a port
"backed by investment groups from Asia and Europe". Propaganda, say critics -
but its "natural location" is conveniently close to breakaway Abkhazia. - Nino
Kharadze (Dec 13, '11)
Bear nettles the eagle, dragon
smiles
While Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accuses the United States of
stirring protests in Moscow against him, Washington is clearly getting up front
and personal about the high probability of Putin's return as president. For
Beijing, the spat and the prospect of an assertive Putin back on top mean
coordination with Moscow will deepen even further on many fronts vital to
China's interests. If the eagle were to fall into a trap it set for the bear,
that would spell joy for the dragon. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Dec 9, '11)
China builds Turkish gas
facility
The "new cooperation paradigm" that since 2010 defines relations between China
and Turkey has been further animated by an agreement for China's Tianchen
Engineering Corp to build a US$640 million underground natural gas storage
facility south of Ankara that will nearly double Turkey's gas storage capacity.
- Robert M Cutler (Dec 8, '11)
'Blow-fly zone' takes hold
over Syria
The Russian Navy's Mediterranean drills and deliveries of ship-killer missiles
to Damascus are an obvious statement to the West: Syria is not Libya. However,
the deployments are also "blow-flies" sniffing out President Bashar al-Assad's
lifespan. As the Syrian coastline bristles with Russian hardware, the Kremlin
is eyeing its first strategic move outside Soviet-era borders in two decades. - John
Helmer (Dec 6, '11)
Doubts over real target of
Uzbek 'terror' blast
A blast on a rail line connecting to a crucial supply route for international
forces fighting in Afghanistan has been described by Uzbekistan as a
''terrorist act''. That Uzbekistan has shown uncommon disinterest in repairing
the damage or sharing details of the investigation can be explained by at least
a decade of strained relations with Tajikistan, its smaller and more isolated
neighbor. - Andrew McGregor (Dec 1, '11)
Dark clouds on Uzbek horizon
Uzbekistan's economy is enjoying strong growth helped by low public debt and
"prudence" in international borrowing, according to the International Monetary
Fund. Poor water infrastructure, an underground Islamist movement and questions
on President Islam Karimov's longevity present a less rosy picture. - Robert M
Cutler (Dec 1, '11)
Moscow gives brutal warning
on Trans-Caspian Project
Russia, determined to tighten its grip on gas supplies to Europe, is stepping
up pressure on Turkmenistan to drop plans for trans-Caspian pipelines to carry
gas to the same potential customers. To underline the message, Moscow is
reminding Ashgabat of the fates of Libya and Georgia. - Vladimir Socor
(Dec 1, '11)
Turkmenistan to boost
gas
exports to China
Turkmenistan is to increase natural gas exports to China by more than 50%, or
to more than half of China's total consumption of the fuel. Beijing's eye is on
the needs of its expanding economy - but also on European energy demand and
Russia's pricing policy for its gas exports. - Robert M Cutler
(Nov 30, '11)
Baku takes control of gas
export policy
The decision of Azerbaijan and Turkey to build a pipeline across Turkey
carrying Caspian Sea natural gas does not kill the prospects for Nabucco and
rival pipeline projects planned to bring the fuel to Europe. It does mean that
Baku will drive its own energy export policy, not the project consortia. - Robert
M Cutler (Nov 22, '11)
Kyrgyzstan asset sales flop
Kyrgyzstan's latest effort to sell assets - in this case Zalkar Bank - failed
to draw any applications, the third time in a month it has failed to offload
contested property once owned by ousted president Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his
family. A 25% cut in the asking price may still prove insufficient to attract
anyone but outright speculators. - Nate Schenkkan
(Nov 21, '11)
Rogun Dam at key juncture
Tajikistan has completed construction that allows it to divert the Vakhsh River
and start building the contested Rogun Dam. President Emomali Rahmon may now
hold back pending independent studies it hopes may ease environmental and other
concerns in Uzbekistan - though abandonment of the project is most unlikely. - Alexander
Sodiqov (Nov 21, '11)
BHP in front line as Marines
take Darwin
China has made clear its likely responses to President Barack Obama and Premier
Julia Gillard's deployment of US Marines to Darwin will be non-military and
where Australia cannot get US protection - such as reassessing its sourcing of
mineral and metal imports, Australia's principal trade goods. That could be
good for Russia, and not beneficial for BHP. - John Helmer
(Nov 21, '11)
Nazarbaev' calls Kazakh poll
l before downturn clouds gather
President Nursultan Nazarbaev's decision to call an early election for
Khazakhstan's lower house of parliament comes after an excellent harvest, a
vote of confidence from Standard & Poor's, and a decline in inflation. All
good signs for an economy whose resilience may be tested if a widely
anticipated global downturn materializes next year. - Robert M Cutler
(Nov 17, '11)
Kashagan feels growing pains
Bolat Akchulakov, head of Kazakhstan's KazMunaiGaz, reckons production of the
vast Kashagan offshore oil and gas field may start two years earlier than
expected - if the project's consortium partners make the right decisions in the
next few months. That is a big if, given the fluid mix of present and potential
parties involved. - Robert M Cutler (Nov 16,
'11)
A thee-way waltz in Honolulu
United States President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry
Medvedev were on first name terms at the weekend's Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation summit in Honolulu, even though nothing particularly is happening
between their countries to justify the bonhomie. Chinese President Hu Jintao,
though, remains very much "Mr President", indicative of the strains between
Washington and Beijing. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov
15, '11)
Suspected spy rattles British
secret state
Katia Zatuliveter is proving something of an embarrassment for Britain's
establishment. The 26-year-old woman accused by MI5 of being a Russian
spy is not only alleged to have exploited a relationship with a member of
parliament but by fighting deportation has thrown light on the Kafkaesque
features of Britain's most secretive court. Quite why the security service
chose to leak details of her detention is unclear, though it may coincide with
growing tensions with Russia. - Mahan Abedin (Nov
14, '11)
Security group stumbles
forward
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in St Petersburg this week
concluded with only a little progress in advancing a key infrastructure
development project for Afghanistan - a US$2 billion electricity transmission
project - and even less on expanding the group through the upgrading of four
observer states to full membership. - Robert M Cutler
(Nov 10, '11)
Turkmenistan, Pakistan reach
TAPI gas price agreement
Pakistan and Turkmenistan have reportedly reached bilateral agreement over the
price of gas to be channeled through the planned
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, a project about whose
realization "there are no doubts" according to the Turmen side. - Robert M
Cutler (Nov 9, '11)
Russia sidelined on eurocrisis
Dmitry Medvedev was among those attending the Group of 20 summit in Cannes last
week, but the Russian president had even less to offer than other world leaders
as they struggled to come to agreement on reaching a solution to the eurozone
debt crisis. - Pavel K Baev (Nov 8, '11)
Putin's red-hot dossier of
liaisons
New revelations about the KGB career of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
suggest the truth behind his relationship with his wife of 28 years, Lyudmila,
lies somewhere in the middle of portrayals of a nightmare union or a love
story for the ages. As Putin prepares for presidential elections early next
year, the latest allegations of womanizing are likely to bolster his image as
an uncompromising patriarch and red-hot lover. (Nov
8, '11)
Europe queries BP pipeline
The Izmir agreements on the transit of Azerbaijani gas to Europe through
Turkish pipelines raises some serious questions - as does the BP-proposed
South-East European Pipeline. The European Commission, concerned about the
impact on the Nabucco project, is trying to get the answers. - Vladimir Socor
(Nov 7, '11)
Russia targets China's clout
Burgeoning defense and trade ties between Myanmar and Russia compliment plans
by the former to study Moscow's politics for its vision of "disciplined
democracy". As Russia prepares to deliver Nawpyidaw 20 MiG-29s and build the
capital's first subway, its and India's increasing involvement are set to
become a balancing force to China's domineering influence. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Nov 7, '11)
Bangladesh, Russia sign
nuclear plant deal
Bangladesh has moved closer to joining the world's nuclear power club with the
signing of an inter-governmental agreement with Russia, which will be
responsible for almost every aspect of two proposed 1,000 megawatt plants in
the South Asian country's northwest. - Syed Tashfin Chowdhury
(Nov 4, '11)
Turkmenistan stands by Caspian
pipeline
Turkmenistan's moves towards building a trans-Caspian gas pipeline to
Azerbaijan, with support from Europe as an eventual end consumer, are not to
the liking of Russia, which insists all Caspian littoral states should
coordinate on such issues. Ashgabat says its cooperation with Europe "will
continue". - Robert M Cutler (Nov 3, '11)
Opening for Russia as Kiev
completes
free-trade talks
A free-trade agreement between Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent
States may draw the country closer to Russia's sphere of influence, despite
Kiev also completing a free-trade accord with the European Union. The hitch
there is the imprisonment of former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko. - Pavel
Korduban (Nov 3, '11)
Azerbaijan lures cheap labor
Azerbaijan's rapidly expanding economy is drawing in large numbers of foreign
workers, from Central Asia and further afield, including from China, in numbers
greater than official quotas. They are often illegal arrivals, low paid, and
survive in slave-like conditions. - Durna Safarli
(Nov 1, '11)
Mongolian core to Russia's nuclear
bid
Russia, through the legacy of an oversized Soviet-era weapons program, is
well-placed to become the prime player in the 21st century global nuclear fuel
industry if it can dominate trade in uranium. That's where a focus on
Mongolia's reserves and hardball tactics come into the frame. The lack of
interest on the part of the United States in Moscow's push is especially
curious - until one considers what a Russian monopoly would mean for China. - Peter
Lee (Oct 28, '11)
Azerbaijan, Turkey sign gas
delivery deal
Azerbaijan and Turkey have reached agreement on natural gas deliveries from the
Caspian Sea. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan underlined the
importance of the deal, a high point of the first "High-Level Strategic
Cooperation Council" meeting between the countries, saying it will decrease
Turkey's energy dependence on Russia. - Robert M Cutler
(Oct 27, '11)
CIS countries sign trade pact
Russia's goal of developing an expanded free-trade area made up of the
Commonwealth of Independent States has taken a big step forward with most
signing up to an agreement in St Petersburg. Among the signatories was
Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovych a day after the European Union disinvited
him from a visit to Brussels. - Robert M Cutler
(Oct 26, '11)
Shah Deniz endgame nigh
The clock is running on key decisions involving the Caspian Sea Shah Deniz
development and related gas pipelines, with the future of Europe's Nabucco
project to the fore. As tension mounts, estimates of the vast reserves in
Turkeminstan's South Yolotan field have been ramped up, yet again. - Robert M
Cutler (Oct 19, '11)
Putin sends 'what reset?'
message
Russian president-all-but-elect Vladimir Putin, in his current guise of
premier, used his visit to China to emphasize the unprecedented level of
trust between the leaders of the two world powers. He also sent a pronounced
message that Russia is ready for a cooling and reversing of the reset in
relations with the West. - Pavel K Baev (Oct
19, '11)
Putin defies stagnation
Russia is "emerging from the crisis", claims Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, not
sinking into a new one. Such positive thinking overlooks negative data and
events involving countries and businesses in which he takes keen personal
interest, most notably Gazprom. - Pavel K Baev
(Oct 13, '11)
Russia misses key China deal
Vladimir Putin signed investment agreements worth US$7 billion during what was
probably his last trip to China as Russian prime minister. A $1 trillion
contract for Siberian natural gas exports, however, continues to evade the
Kremlin's grasp. - Robert M Cutler (Oct 13,
'11)
Ukraine scores own goal for
Russia
Europe shares former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko's claims
that her seven-year jail-term is a political vendetta by opponents of her
Western leanings, while on the other side of the Eurasian midriff, Russia
professes indifference. In the endgame of the "Orange" revolution, Moscow is
deftly aiming to play the coming tussle over Tymoshenko's fate to suck Kiev
eastwards into a Eurasian economic union, with Russia at the hub. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Oct 12, '11)
EU eyes Kazakh gas
A European Union offer for Kazakhstan to take part in the Trans-Caspian Gas
Pipeline project that the EU is helping to negotiate between Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan has been rejected on the basis that current gas production rates
will not permit it. Some role, in the vague future, was not ruled out. - Robert
M Cutler (Oct 12, '11)
Georgia seeks killer tourists
Georgia is preparing to allow the killing of all animal and bird species, even
in national parks and nature reserves, to garner income from hunting tourism.
The Environment Ministry would control slaughter of endangered species - but
its inspectorate unit has been abolished. - Natia Kuprashvili
(Oct 12, '11)
Putin enters the dragon's den
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin heads to China for a two-day visit at an
important time for relations between the counties, and at an even more critical
junction for the United States' "Silk Road" project to extend its influence in
greater Central Asia. Beijing and Moscow will certainly want to hammer out an
energy deal, while working on a viable counter-strategy to Washington. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Oct 7, '11)
Kazakhstan shows robustness
World oil prices are helping to maintain Kazakhstan's powerful growth, with
expansion of more than 7% in the first six months of the year. Inflation,
though still in high single digits, is heading in the opposite direction,
thanks to a good harvest - and overseas funds are pouring in. - Robert M Cutler
(Oct 6, '11)
BP slips in Shah Deniz bid
As the door closed on proposals to transport natural gas to Europe from
Azerbaijan's offshore Shah Deniz Two field, a fourth candidate emerged backed
by BP, whose pipeline solution could knock the legs from under the much-touted
Nabucco pipeline. - Robert M Cutler (Oct 5,
'11)
Turkey seeks gas price cut
Turkey has joined the ranks of claimants seeking a revision of their contracts
with Russian gas supplier Gazprom following a 39% increase in the price of
Russian gas in the past 29 months. Despite Russia's overwhelming dominance in
the Turkish market, Ankara apparently feels that it holds some negotiating
leeway. - Vladimir Socor (Oct 3, '11)
China expands energy ties in
Central Asia
The tour of Central Asia this month by Liu Tienan, head of China's National
Energy Administration, and other senior Chinese officials underlines the
growing depth of ties between China and Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan, the area's three main energy-producing countries. - Robert M Cutler
(Sep 28, '11)
Russia's Kudrin still in play
Aleksei Kudrin, before his sudden departure as Russia's finance minister, was
tipped as a potential prime minister under a future president Vladimir
Putin. His public spat with President Dmitry Medvedev may be one way of setting
out his terms - or a setback to his ambition. (Sep
27, '11)
China and Russia tussle over SCO's
future
Immediately after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization marked its 10th
anniversary, Russia and China notched 10 years since a landmark friendship
treaty. However, the SCO's key members have competing visions for the security
group. While Beijing wants enhanced defense cooperation ahead of the United
States' Afghan withdrawal, Moscow is concerned deeper integration will create
an economic bloc that rivals its regional influence. - Yu Bin
(Sep 26, '11)
BOOK REVIEW
Russia's tug-of-war with its
Asian soul
Russian Orientalism: Asia in the Russian Mind from Peter the Great to the
Emigration by David Schimmelpenninck van der Oye
This book expertly details how pre-revolutionary Russia's view of "Asia"
coincided with that of European Orientalists - even as Western intellectuals
saw Russians as Asiatic successors to the Huns and Mongols. As study of Asia
blossomed into a critical source of colonial know-how, belief in the potential
of Eurasian symbiosis gradually gave way to suspicions and benign imperialism,
mimicking present-day Russia's Asian outlook.
- Dmitry Shlapentokh (Sep 23, '11)
Russian heads for slowdown
Making sure consumers have cash to spend in the run-up to a presidential
election is a good wheeze in Russia as anywhere else. The country's economy,
however, looks like it is stalling, investment is declining and the rouble is
increasingly weak. - Robert M Cutler (Sep 22,
'11)
EU takes plunge into Caspian
pipeline talks
European Union officials have been authorized to become directly involved in
negotiations between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan over a gas pipeline linking
the two states via the Caspian Sea. The move, part of a revamp of the EU's
energy strategy, is not to Russia's liking. - Robert M Cutler
(Sep 21, '11)
Obama prepares to punish
Pakistan
Uzbekistan is assuming more significance for Barack Obama as the kingpin for
any orderly American military pullout from Afghanistan - and a contingency for
a failing relationship with Pakistan. As the United States president cultivates
ties with Tashkent as a possible long-term partner in Afghanistan, he is
sending out strong signals that Islamabad should expect a showdown. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Sep 20, '11)
Ukraine in gas talks deadlock
Ukrainian officials have pledged to avoid a renewed "gas war" with Russia, yet
price negotiations are deadlocked. Higher bills would undermine Kiev's loan
agreement with the International Monetary Fund, unless passed on to Ukrainian
consumers - who could then oust Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's party
at next year's elections. - Pavel Korduban (Sep
14, '11)
Total find bulks up Baku's
local standing
Total's discovery of yet another major gas source in the Caspian Sea further
strengthens Baku's emergence as an autonomous energy power in the region. Given
the growing magnitude of its reserves, not to mention its potential as a
transit country, Azerbaijan will have to be taken seriously for decades to
come. - Robert M Cutler (Sep 14, '11)
Turkey gains a radar, loses
neighborly trust
Turkey has thrown its "zero-problems with neighbors" doctrine out of the
window. By deciding to host a North Atlantic Treaty Organization radar system
that would give Israelis the benefit of an early warning on incoming Iranian
missiles in the event of a military strike on Iran, Turkey has incurred
Tehran's wrath. Similar headaches may grip relations with Russia over its fears
of NATO encirclement. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep
12, '11)
Kyrgyz rail link hopes rise
Kyrgyz Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev is to discuss with Chinese officials
details of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railroad, raising the possibility of
agreement on the project. The long-proposed link would be two third's the
length of China's rail access to Central Asia, by-passing Russia's
Trans-Siberian line. - Erica Marat (Sep 12,
'11)
Turkey's economy may falter
The Turkish economy, forecast by the International Monetary Fund to grow at
almost 9% this year, may in fact be stumbling under the weight of high
inflation, a weakening currency and declining foreign investment, inhibited by
high tax rates and intellectual property issues. - Robert M Cutler
(Sep 8, '11)
Putin's European goal
no
longer a pipe dream
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has had a good week by any measure.
Russia's Nord Stream pipeline carrying gas directly to Germany formally opened
and a shareholder agreement was finalized for the South Stream pipeline to
carry Russian gas to Western Europe. The two are poised to choreograph a new
power dynamic in the heart of Europe. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Sep 8, '11)
Roh sheds light on Russian switch
Plans for a gas pipeline from Russia through North Korea to South Korea are
arousing curiosity about the former Soviet role on the peninsula. The recently
published memoir of former South Korean president Roh Tae-woo, who established
diplomatic relations with Moscow in 1990, shed light on Russia's switch in
allegiance to the South from its Cold War ally in the North. - Sunny Lee
(Sep 7, '11)
Ukraine moves to trim gas
lines
Ukraine is to dismantle state-owned Naftogaz and review its gas deals with the
aim of cutting imports of the fuel from Russia by two-thirds; this is not to
the Kremlin's liking. Compromise may lie in an upgrade of Ukraine's
distribution system - and who would pay. - Robert M Cutler
(Sep 7, '11)
Kremlin faces big hit in Libya
Russia's belated recognition of Libya's new leadership may be too late to save
billions of dollars of contracts in the country. One US$4 billion arms deal is
already dead. Others involve oil deals and a high-speed rail link. Deposed
Muammar Gaddafi's role in their creation may now count against them. - Tom
Balmforth (Sep 6, '11)
Medvedev and Kim make capital
Russia engaged in the diplomatic art of possibilities by entertaining Kim
Jong-il to the prospect of the resumption of multilateral talks over North
Korea's nuclear ambitions. Moscow also had an eye on a grand energy export
prize that may run out of gas, while many see the Dear Leader's recent busy
trips to Russia and China as a preparatory move to strike a deal with the
United States. - Sunny Lee (Sep 1, '11)
South Korea deepens role in
Central Asia
South Korea President Lee Myung-bak's tour of Mongolia, Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan significantly expanded Seoul's ties with the three countries,
lubricated by billions of dollars worth of construction and other business
agreements involving Korea's top companies. - Robert M Cutler
(Sep 1, '11) |
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