Small wars loom large on China's horizon
China's rising naval dominance in the western Pacific could soon see it launch small-scale wars against rival claimants for energy-rich waters, with the fallout more manageable than expected for Beijing. While attacking major US allies like South Korea would stir too much trouble, testing new toys against adversaries like Vietnam or the Philippines is unlikely to spark World War III.
- Jens Kastner (Apr 5, '12)

THE ROVING EYE
We want war,
and we want it now
A full-fledged mercenary army paid for by autocrat Arabs to overthrow an Arab government in Syria is pure and simple regime change - United States rhetoric about "democracy" and "freedom" notwithstanding. It's all about classic, imperial divide and rule, profiting from pitting Sunnis against Shi'ites.
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 5, '12)

The Lady and the generals meet half-way The sweeping by-election victories in Myanmar by Aung San Suu Kyi's party and the government's tolerance of the voting outcome have made it possible for the United States to start relaxing sanctions against the country. The next challenge is the 2015 general election and whether the army will stand back then too. - Brian McCartan (Apr 5, '12) Fears over floating currency Stability in Myanmar will now be reflected in a floating exchange rate for its currency as the government moves to abandon an overvalued fixed rate in line with the more widely used black market value. Badly managed, the float could lead foreign capital now rushing in to flee just as quickly. - Joseph Allchin (Apr 5, '12)

Loyalty drive may stifle China reforms
A plethora of wild rumors surrounding the downfall of Chongqing's Communist Party secretary Bo Xilai confirms there are serious ills in China's body politic. Amid attempts to shore up stability ahead of the wholesale changing of the guard at the 18th Party Congress in November, it is doubtful whether the party elite will heed Premier Wen Jiabao's repeated calls for genuine political reform. - Willy Lam (Apr 5, '12)

Modi garlanded abroad, stained in India
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, burnishing his image ahead of a likely bid to lead India in 2014, is being lauded abroad by sources such as Time magazine. The problem for Modi at home is that the achievements they cite fail to glow, while his brand of Hindu nationalism and part played in sectarian riots in 2002 won't wash away outside of Gujarat.- Sudha Ramachandran (Apr 5, '12)

Explosive escalation of Thai insurgency
Whether the coordinated car bomb attacks in two southern Thai cities were essentially operational, or squarely political, is a moot point. What is clear is the changed landscape of the low-intensity insurgency - and the pressing need to come up with a solution that won't aggravate the situation. - Anthony Davis (Apr 5, '12)

INTERVIEW
Revisiting the science
behind 9/11
Even as the blood-stained dust of the World Trade Center was still smoking, the attacks triggered one of history's most enduring "whodunit" mysteries. In this interview with Asia Times Online contributor Victor Fic, Australian scientist Frank Legge indicts the United States. (Apr 5, '12)

SPEAKING FREELY Saudi Arabia's Syrian jihad While the United States and its allies are wary of seeing Syria become a sectarian battleground, Saudi Arabia is enthusiastically hurtling towards it. Power brokers in Riyadh have clearly calculated that the potential fruits of toppling President Bashar al-Assad, and enthroning a Sunni-aligned regime, are well worth the political risk. - Joshua Jacobs (Apr 5, '12) To submit to Speaking Freely click here.

World impotent as North Korea shoots
The satellite launch in North Korea this month is an important step towards acquiring capacity to fire a long-range missile, which makes international outrage and China's uncharacteristic voicing of displeasure understandable. But these are noises off-stage; even if China accepts more sanctions, it will make sure they will not bite too harsh. For Pyongyang, cancelation of the blast is unthinkable. - Andrei Lankov (Apr 4, '12)

US risks emotion on China's clean energy
As the United States government imposes tariffs in response to alleged Chinese subsidies on manufacture and export of solar panels, US legislators must ask whether protectionism or competition should be used to deal with China's goal of dominating clean technology. Emotionally satisfying protectionism will unfortunately be the one chosen. - Benjamin A Shobert (Apr 4, '12)

SINOGRAPH
Dreams - and nightmares
Chinese leaders have come to realize the country should become a great paladin of the free market and democracy, and embrace them very strongly, just as the West is rejecting them because it is realizing they are backfiring. This is the "Chinese Dream" - working better than the American dream. Or is it just too fanciful?
- Francesco Sisci (Apr 4, '12)

Data mining you
A US$2 billion bunker in Utah five times the size of the US Capitol is one of many sprouting like mushrooms in the sunless forest of the US intelligence world. With a boggling septillion bytes of storage space for information on everyone, that network is a faceless and Kafkaesque bid to capture our very identities.
- Tom Engelhardt (Apr 4, '12)

US toys with East Asian peace
Despite North Korea's invitations for US experts to verify the peaceful nature of its satellite launch and past US acceptance that Pyongyang is capable of launching such devices, Washington continues to threaten East Asian peace with its ultimatums, says the North's unofficial spokesman. By bravely back-tracking on its bluffs, the US could break the cycle of tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
- Kim Myong Chol (Apr 4, '12)

AN ATOL INVESTIGATION
All of Kim Jong-eun's men
Key managers of North Korea's illicit ballistic and nuclear weapons programs have moved to the center of Kim Jong-eun's inner circle in the first leadership reshuffle after his father's death, confidential foreign intelligence documents show. The shadowy power brokers have already tested their leader's mettle with missile launch plans that sabotaged the recent US food-aid deal. - Nate Thayer (Apr 3, '12)

US keeps eye on Syria, ties in Gulf
The "Friends of Syria" meeting on April Fool's Day exposed the international impotence of attempts at regime change, including the sniff of a bid by Gulf monarchies to bribe President Bashar al-Assad's forces into defection. There was only one winner in Istanbul: having wisely kept her own counsel, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton walked away from the circus laughing. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 3, '12)

Israeli experts back Bibi's bluff
That there isn't much outcry in Israel against a war with Iran is down to Israelis knowing the game Benjamin Netanyahu is playing. Their prime minister's poker face on an irrational threat to attack Iran is seen as a highly successful bluff that has succeeded in heaping international sanctions on their enemy.
- Gareth Porter (Apr 3, '12)

SPENGLER
Rick Santorum's
mission from God
Rick Santorum can one day become the president of the United States, just not now. First, he needs to act as a beacon for generosity and disinterested patriotism by suspending his campaign and backing Mitt Romney's bid. By making the president in 2012, the path will be clear for Santorum's God-given future as one of America's senior statesmen. (Apr 2, '12)