If the Rio de Janeiro Olympics were held today, the United States would win the most medals and the most golds. And American swimmer Michael Phelps would collect five more gold medals and a bronze, bringing his overall total to 28 with a career gold-medal haul of 23.
Simon Gleave has been crunching the Olympic numbers for four years, putting them through a data-processing program as the head of analysis for US-based Gracenote, a sports and entertainment data provider.
“In terms of medal-count and order, it’s going to be close to what we have,” said Gleave, who in 2012, using a less sophisticated program, predicted within four medals the results of 16 of the top 20 teams.
Gleave will issue updates again in June, July and August, just days before the Aug. 5 opening. He expects a few minor changes, but nothing major. Gleave is picking the United States to top the table with 42 gold and 102 overall. China will be second with 31 gold and 78 overall, which is the same 1-2 order as London four years ago. The next teams in order of gold are: Russia (22), Australia (18), Britain (17), Germany (15), Japan (12), South Korea (12), France (10) and the host-country Brazil (9). Read More