Most analysts have done the math on China’s projected economic growth based on official pronouncements, so the details that came out about China’s 13th five-year plan this week weren’t a surprise. But where the Chinese party leadership is concerned, you never know what they’ll do until they actually do it.
In this vein, IHS Global Insight China economist Brian Jackson notes in a report that the Chinese government is repeating the themes from the previous five-year plans, though they say the themes will grow in importance and specificity. For instance, the government still expects the economy to double in size by 2020, and to do this is needs to post average growth of 6.6% over that period.The biggest change in the plan was the widely reported move from a one-child policy to a two-child policy. But Jackson notes the easing of the rule largely formalizes changes that were already underway in the country’s birth stance.