Excuse us if we sound out of breath. We just finished a victory lap. Meanwhile, the Dr. Dooms of the Chinese bull rally are busy scratching their heads.
Didn’t we just say yesterday that Hong Kong shares were the most compelling buy in the world? Well, the western media outlets might not be listening to us, but investors are. (Or at least sharing our conclusions.)
After a public holiday Monday, Chinese mainland shares on Tuesday rebounded from last week’s 13% correction and Hong Kong stocks continued Monday’s rally.
The mainland’s CSI 300 index jumped 3.2%, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index climbed 2.2%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 0.9% and the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index rose 1.7%.
Some said both Chinese A-shares and H-shares rose with other global markets on hopes for a deal between Greece and its international creditors. But maybe investors saw the survey released Tuesday that said the Chinese economy started to rebound in the second quarter. Maybe all those soothing messages from the Chinese government were more than just talk.
The two biggest take-aways from the China Beige Book, a private survey of many sectors and regions released Tuesday, are that the retail sector “saw rising revenue growth despite a slip in prices — and a broad-based rebound in property.” Manufacturing, services, real estate, agriculture and mining also saw quarterly and annual gains. Shipping and travel were the only sectors to fall.
Of the more than 2,000 Chinese firms responding to the survey, 37% managed to raise prices and 45% said profit margins advanced.
Last week’s sharp dive was triggered by what many are calling a lack of liquidity.
One of major driver’s for this year’s rally has been margin financing, and last week, the government tightened the margin rules to reduce that leverage. On top of that, a slew of initial public offerings sucked liquidity out of the market.
Reuters said the “deleveraging” worked because outstanding margin debt in Shanghai fell for the first time in a month last Friday, to 1.48 trillion yuan ($238.4 billion).