HSBC said it won’t re-enter the Indian equity markets until they fall 10% from their current levels. And in an effort to make that happen, the giant bank slashed its ratings on the Indian economy to “underweight” from “overweight,” reported the Economic Times.
HSBC didn’t say they were trying to push the market lower, it just said it had concerns about slowing earnings growth.
HSBC’s Herald Van der Linde told the Economic Times that India is one of the most over-owned markets in Asia. He listed four reasons for the downgrade:
1) A delayed recovery in India’s capital expenditure cycle is lowering earnings growth expectations. Also China’s policy stimulus is likely to boost commodity prices, which is negative for India.
2) HSBC believes that by June, there might not be any further interest rate cuts to support the market.
3) HSBC FX strategist Paul Mackel believes that the Indian rupee will continue to weaken against the U.S. dollar.
4) Finally, the weather. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s has made an official declaration that there will be a mean poor monsoon for India, resulting in negative effects on India’s agricultural sector and by extension, rural demand.
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Categories: Asia Unhedged