In a full-court press to make the yuan a reserve currency, China is unlikely to engineer a competitive devaluation, said famed asset manager Pacific Investment Management Co., reported Bloomberg.
The People’s Bank of China is asking the International Monetary Fund to add the yuan to its basket of reserve currencies — dollar, euro, pound and yen — in a review later this year. In the last go-around, in 2010, the yuan missed the cut because it wasn’t deemed to be “freely usable” in trade and finance.
The maintenance of a stable exchange rate may bolster the yuan’s chances this time, Isaac Meng, a Pimco portfolio manager in Hong Kong, wrote in a research note Wednesday. In the note, Meng said it’s unlikely that China will hit its growth target of 7% this year. He added that devaluing the currency would also hurt the government’s attempt to move the economy toward domestic consumption and away from exports.
“We expect more intensified easing to follow, including potential balance-sheet expansion,” Meng wrote. “China is dealing with a property slowdown and deleveraging of the shadow banking system, and can no longer rely on low wages and a competitive currency to support an endless export boom.”
The giant California-based company manages $1.59 trillion of assets globally. In the same note, Luke Spajic, a Singapore-based portfolio manager, said he sees value in buying Chinese government bonds and quasi-sovereign and bank debt. Pimco also has a “favorable view” on Chinese equities.
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Categories: Asia Unhedged