Industrial and Commercial Bank of China led gains on the Hang Sang China Enterprises Index overnight, up 4.86%, followed by China Construction Bank (+4.39%), Bank of Communications (+4.31%), China Minsheng Bank (+3.93%), Bank of China (+3.56%) and Agricultural Bank of China (+3.50%). Banks rallied after ICBC reported mediocre 4th quarter earnings, with a big pop in loan loss provisions and a modest decline in YOY net revenue.
Mediocre is beautiful when stocks are cheap. Chinese banks non-performing loans were a mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in plastic explosive, and the market bid down bank stocks because of uncertainty about future write-offs. A year ago, ICBC traded at a multiple of just 4 to earnings. Now investors are convinced that banks can earn their way out their bad loss positions over time, and bank multiples have recovered–to just one-third their pre-2008 levels.
At the peak of the 2007 China equity boom ICBC traded at 21 times earnings, or three times its present valuation. The bank stock recovery reflects greater confidence in regulatory transparency under the ongoing financial reform regime. The banks have gone from distressed valuations to merely low valuations.
As global managers pile into the China trade, moreover, bank stocks are among the few vehicles with enough market capitalization and liquidity to meet the requirements of large portfolio managers.
Categories: Asia Unhedged