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A Persian message for Obama

Washington has done the right thing in accepting Iran's overtures for nuclear
swap talks without preconditions as they give Barack Obama a ladder to climb
down from his high horse. The United States president may yet come to see that
a US-Iran grand bargain has much to offer, and could even help the US avoid
what is perilously close to strategic failure in Afghanistan. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jul 30, '10)
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Ahmadinejad makes a call to arms
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's hint that Iran could come under attack in the
next few months could be a political gamble to make it easier for him to show
flexibility on the nuclear question. Simultaneously, allusions to an imminent
attack are a call for national mobilization in preparation for confronting the
military muscles of a Western superpower and its Israeli ally. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Jul 30, '10)
US and Cambodia in controversial
lockstep
Cambodia's first-ever multinational peacekeeping exercise took place against
the backdrop of increasingly strong ties with the United States military, as
Washington puts new emphasis on blocking China's influence. The drills don't
sit well with Thai armed forces after skirmishes on the border, and
human-rights activists who argue Cambodians need protecting from their own
army. - Clifford McCoy (Jul 30, '10)
The (war) games go on
The South Korean navy plans to stage military exercises next week in the Yellow
Sea near where one of its ships was sunk in March with the loss of 46 sailors.
The United States has still to decide on participation in this drill, but it
will join regular monthly war games that both sides have agreed to stage in
response to the sinking of the corvette the Cheonan. - Donald Kirk
(Jul 30, '10)
China finds a friend in Germany
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to China this month was heavy on
business, and with Merkel avoiding sensitive topics the trip marks a new era in
bilateral ties that the Chinese see as developing into a truly strategic
partnership. Beijing could use a friend - it still has many opponents in
Europe. - Jian Junbo (Jul 30, '10)
Hezbollah sees plot behind Hariri
tribunal
Hezbollah believes Israel and other opponents are preparing a steady case set
to culminate in its being fingered for the assassination of the Rafik Hariri in
2005. If, as a senior Israeli official suggests, its members are indicted at a
tribunal into the death of the former Lebanese prime minister, Hezbollah's
alliance with Hariri's son Saad, the current prime minister, will shatter and
Lebanon will be thrown into political turmoil. - Sami Moubayed
(Jul 30, '10)
The end of (military) history
War as a viable instrument of statecraft is headed for the dustbin of history.
This does not mean the end of war itself and certainly not of global violence,
but of a Western faith in the efficacy of force, of war as "a viable instrument
of statecraft", and with it of a belief in big victory and military dominance.
- Andrew J Bacevich (Jul 30, '10)

India slips Myanmar a nudge and a
wink
Myanmar's Senior General Than Shwe rounded off a five-day visit to India on
Thursday after securing pacts that will boost security and economic cooperation
between the countries, while also receiving US$70 million in grants. The red
carpet laid out for the junta's leader is a sign of Delhi's decision to quietly
nudge Myanmar on issues of concern, while playing down sensitive issues such as
restoration of democracy. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Jul 29, '10)
INTERVIEW
An ancient vision
Pakistan
has taken a lot of heat since thousands of classified United States military
documents were leaked to the whistle-blower website WikiLeaks, with some
Pakistani officials even accusing Washington of trying to smear the country.
Julian Assange, the site's founder, puts the record straight.
(Jul 29, '10)
Vietnam hedges its China risk
While Vietnam's Communist Party leadership is deeply ambivalent about getting
too close to Washington, there is a growing realization that the United States
is essential to counter-balancing China's rise. Vietnam is also using its
influence as one of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations to create a united front, and for good measure also partnering with an
old ally. - The Hanoist (Jul 29, '10)
China and Taiwan: In war we trust
Trade ties may deepen, visitor numbers may enlarge, and calls may grow for both
sides across the Taiwan Strait to formally end six decades of war. All recent
signs show however that amid the buildup of firepower trained at each other,
China's and Taiwan's militaries are still light-years away from establishing
the mutual trust necessary to end hostilities. - Jens Kastner
(Jul 29, '10)
Lee's chance to steer a new course
Northeast Asia after the Cheonan affair is more volatile than it has
been since the end of the Cold War. With North Korea off the hook, South Korean
President Lee Myung-bak has lost the most. A reversal of his policy toward
Pyongyang would stem the loss and, more importantly, could restore some sense
of stability to the region. - Yong Kwon (Jul
29, '10)
Deep undercurrents stir the Middle
East
While the lack of loud threats and military maneuvers in the Middle East
suggests that an Israeli strike on Iran is no longer imminent, the intrigue and
chess moves taking place across Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Egypt mean this is
more likely a deceptive calm, intended to allow for some intense last-minute
negotiations and preparations for a strike. - Victor Kotsev
(Jul 28, '10)
US goes fishing for trouble
China's ambiguous expression of the South China Sea as a "core interest" adds
to evidence that it has been unable to summon the fortitude to pursue a
reasonable resolution of conflicting claims. Once more into the diplomatic
breach steps the United States. - Peter Lee (Jul
28, '10)
SINOGRAPH
US toe-dipping muddies
South China Sea
With its announcement last week that disputes over the highly sensitive South
China Sea are a "leading diplomatic priority", Washington muddied already
complex waters for Beijing. Yet a US presence is desirable for China as it
could act as a neutral referee to ease territorial claims that have the
potential to unravel the region's economic development. - Francesco Sisci
(Jul 28, '10)
Plan B for Afghanistan
The United States could carry on fighting an increasingly problematic war in
Afghanistan against the Taliban, planning for a withdrawal that might be
endlessly delayed, or it could consider another option. The US and its allies
could pull out from the Pashtun regions in the south and east and concentrate
on political and economic development in the northern areas, where the
insurgency is weak and anti-Taliban sentiment is strong. - Brian M Downing
(Jul 28, '10)
Thousands of reasons to leave
The
many thousands of leaked United States military documents concerning the war in
Afghanistan support the view of insufficient American and allied forces
fighting a capable enemy on its home ground and a Pakistan positioning itself
for the inevitable outcome. While this reality is not shocking or new, the
documents do make the most powerful case yet for withdrawal from Afghanistan
sooner rather than later. - George Friedman (Jul
28, '10)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The opposites game
The Pentagon will buy some Russian, not American, helicopters so that special
forces can "cloak" the fact they are American. No congressional representatives
have gotten upset; no pundits have written editorials; and no reporters have
yet followed it up. Historically, imperial powers consider every strange thing
they do more or less the norm. For a waning imperial power, however, such an
attitude has its own dangers. - Tom Engelhardt
(Jul 28, '10)
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THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK
Pegs, boards and the IMF curse
The instability of unregulated financial markets poses great danger (and the
risk of International Monetary Fund intervention) for developing countries, as
already seen from Asia to Argentina. And while the Chinese currency is playing
an increased role in the global economy, that does not inoculate Beijing's
partners against trade disputes. - Henry C K Liu
(Jul 28, '10)
This is the 12th article in a series.
Part 11: The
folly of common currencies
Pakistan has its own battle to fight
The leaked classified United States military documents that point to Pakistan's
links to the Taliban are significant even though the news is not particularly
new. They come at a juncture when the lines in Pakistan are clearly drawn
between militants and the military, and any misunderstanding between Islamabad
and Washington will only benefit the militants. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jul 27, '10)
SPENGLER
Murder on the
Khyber Pass Express
Who covered up a scandalous arrangement known to everyone with a casual
acquaintance of the Afghan situation? WikiLeaks has added to the evidence that
Pakistan has been backing the Taliban, but the facts have long been clear, as
has the answer to who covered up: everybody. Two US administrations, India,
China and Iran - all are terrified of facing a failed state with nuclear
weapons. But at some point the charade must end. (Jul
26, '10)
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CHAN
AKYA
Unholy
trinity sets up more bank failures

The combined bumbling and cowardly efforts of bank authorities in Europe and
politicians in the United States this month ensures that a future banking
system failure is inevitable. It didn't have to be like this - but bankers, at
least, are happy.
MARKET RAP
Asia nudges ahead
Shanghai kept to the fore as Asian markets eased upwards in the week, but with
signs of a shortage of stamina. The prospect is of a rough ride as short-term
pessimism starts to do battle with longer-term optimism.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.

Gaming gamble for Google
The growing popularity of social gaming is making the sector the next target
for Google, as the search company identifies yet another potentially huge
revenue stream and a source for information on Internet users and usage.
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science,
gaming and gizmos.
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Banking
insanity
When a central banker gets round to saying things such as "We have to avoid an
asymmetry between bold, if justified, loosening and unduly hesitant
retrenchment" you just know that the world has gone insane and that nothing
makes any sort of sense - except buying gold.
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CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Trichet challenges inflationism
Overshadowed by news of bank stress tests, European Central Bank president
Jean-Claude Trichet made it clear last week the risk of unrelenting government
stimulus. Given calls for policymakers in Washington and elsewhere to throw
caution to the wind with further spending programs, it is a timely and
courageous warning. (Jul 26, '10)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
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"In June 1953, when the first United States intervention to crush the Islamic
Revolution in defense of its own interests and those of its close ally the
United Kingdom took place, which resulted in Mohammed Reza Pahlevi assuming
power ... " - Fidel Castro.
"The Islamic revolution did not come about until 1979-80 and probably never
would have had Britain and the USA let well enough alone with Iran back in
1953." - MonsoonWind spots Castro's Freudian slip.
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From Our Mailbox
[Re Murder on the
Khyber Pass Express, Jul 26] The most shameful part is that the
American and international press think that this is a joke or a victory while
ignoring the grave consequences that this will bring.
Ysais Martinez
United States
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